Three NBA Players Most Likely to Win MVP Next Season
The 2024-25 NBA season is a little over three months away, but fans are already having the MVP discussion. This past season's MVP discussion was extremely close, with Nikola Jokić, Luka Dončić, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander putting up a good case for themselves. Jokić ended up winning the award, making him the ninth NBA player ever to win the award three or more times. With my belief in “voter fatigue,” I have serious doubts about Jokić winning the award for a fourth time. That said, let’s get into my three NBA players most likely to win the MVP award for the upcoming season.
At number three, I have Luka Dončić. Dončić is coming off a season in which he averaged 33 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists per game. Dončić finished third in the MVP voting with 566 points. With Dončićs numbers being elite and the finals run being in everyone's mind, you may be wondering why I have him third for best odds to win the MVP award. Well, for starters, I do not believe the Mavericks will be among the top four teams in the Western Conference. The Mavericks' overall defense will take a hit with the loss of Derrick Jones Jr. Replacing Jones Jr with Klay Thompson improves the offense but significantly hinders the defense. I don’t see a scenario where the Mavericks are good enough defensively to finish ahead of the Denver Nuggets, Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Clippers, and the Los Angeles Lakers. Dončić will also be playing a bit less on the ball this season because of the Klay Thompson signing. I expect another elite season from Dončić, and I do believe in him to win the award, but as of right now, I have him third.
My second favorite to win the award is Anthony Edwards. If you read my previous NBA article, you would know how high I am on Edwards heading into the 2024-25 season. Edwards's Western Conference finals run was one of the most impressive/entertaining runs we have seen in a while. His constant jawing at Kevin Durant and his 43 and 44-point performances against the reigning champion Denver Nuggets all but solidified that Edwards had arrived as the next face of the NBA. The Timberwolves are bringing back the majority of their key players, so as long as they stay healthy, they are a lock to finish top four in the conference. With Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert anchoring the defense, all Edwards has to do is bump up his efficiency and PPG to solidify himself as an MVP candidate. In Team USA's exhibition game against Canada, Edwards led the team in scoring while coming off the bench. This is a team full of Hall of Famers, yet Edwards was the best player on the floor. Expect a huge season from Ant-Man this season.
Last but not least, we have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Shai finished second in MVP voting last season, getting 620 points. Shai averaged 30 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists per game while shooting 53% from the floor. Led by Shai, The Oklahoma City Thunder finished the regular season as the one seed in the Western Conference and made it to the second round, where they lost to the Mavericks. This offseason, OKC got better by adding one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, Alex Caruso. What makes Shai the favorite for me personally is that all the buzz is surrounding him right now. For a while now, it has felt like the NBA voters like giving their votes to the MVP candidate with the best story. What is a better story than finally winning the MVP after finishing second the previous season? Oklahoma City is more likely than not going to finish as a top-two seed in the Western Conference and that gives him a head start compared to other betting favorites. Shai has averaged 30 ppg in consecutive seasons, meaning it is unlikely he won’t do it again. If Shai can stay healthy and the Thunder can stay atop of the Western Conference, he should be the favorite to win the MVP award
