Army-Navy Showdown: Game Picks and In-Depth Preview

While it is not the oldest rivalry in college football, it is one of the most unique games played yearly. The Army-Navy game dates back to 1890 and has been played every year consecutively since 1930. This game gives those willing to serve our country a chance to play in a stand-alone game on national television. Two teams that historically have not had great offenses have exceeded expectations this year. Army is coming off a win in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game while also being left out of the College Football Playoff. Navy, on the other side, finished with their best record since 2019. Historically, this game has been a low-scoring affair, with less than 38 points scored in the last 10 meetings. While researching this game, I came across some statistics that led me to believe this year may be an outlier, which would result in plenty of points being scored.

This game, scheduled for Dec. 14th, has Army favored by six and a half points and the total set at 39.5. In general, we see low-scoring Army-Navy games because of a rush-heavy attack, a slower pace, and an inefficient offense. While some of those remain true, the inefficient offense is not one of them. Currently, Army and Navy are both ranked 24th or better in offense PPA and rushing PPA per CollegeFootballData. This statistic places a value on each play to determine success. It is worth noting that both Army and Navy have played a below-average strength of schedule this year, but the results are impressive regardless.

Army has been elite this year on offense, but let’s focus on the run since they rush the ball the second most times per game in the nation. They rank sixth in offensive rush PPA and seventh in rush success rate per CollegeFootballData. Arguably just as important, their offensive line has been playing great. The two main statistics used to determine this are stuff rate and line yards. Stuff rate looks at the percentage of running plays that get stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage. Line yards are calculated by how many rushing yards are attributed to the offensive line, not the running back. Army ranks first in stuff rate and fourth in line yards. When you compare that to the Navy defense, it isn’t pretty. Navy is ranked 117th or worse in both of those categories. To add salt to the wound, Navy is also 100th or worse in defensive rush PPA and success rate. I have no hesitation in stating that Army should be able to control the trenches and move the ball at ease on offense.

While Navy isn’t in quite the same elite company that Army is, they still have found success on the ground. Running the ball at the sixth most times per game in the nation, Navy ranks 20th in offensive rush PPA and 52nd in rush success rate per CollegeFootballData. Their stuff rate and line yards are both acceptable as well, ranking 18th and 42nd, respectively. While these numbers aren’t incredibly impressive all on their own, they sure look better against Army’s defense. Just like Navy, Army struggles against the run and in the trenches on defense. Army is ranked 95th or worse in stuff rate, line yards, defensive rush PPA, and success rate. Once again, I see a realistic chance that this offense can run the ball at will against their opposition. 

Another statistic that I use to gauge the total points scored in a game is explosiveness. Depending on which data source you use, this can vary, but in general, this statistic will determine how often a big play happens that gains a certain amount of yards or PPA. Both of these offenses rank in the 87th percentile or higher in rush explosiveness per GameOnPaper. One issue here is that both of these defenses have done a good job containing rush explosives, so we’re going to need one or two to sneak by.

Another useful statistic to mention is points per opportunity, which looks at points scored once the offense is inside their opponent’s 40-yard line. Army and Navy both rank 21st or better in this category on offense, so if the offenses can keep the ball moving, we should have no problem getting points. On the downside, their defenses are also great at minimizing points per opportunity, so we’ll have to see which will give first. My money is on the defense.

If we’re looking for points, most of what I have stated sounds great, aside from the defenses being able to prevent explosives and minimize points per opportunity. The other item that could keep points low here is seconds per play. Army and Navy both rank 129th or worse, which means they are using up most of the play clock every snap. Even with slower play, I still really like the chance this game goes over the total points. As stated earlier, the offenses should have no issue running the ball, mainly due to advantages in the trenches. I know the trends will tell you to take the under here, but these teams are different this year. I bet the over on the Air Force/Army game earlier this year with a similar thought process, and it ended up cashing. For this game, I bet the over at 40.5 when it opened, but it looks like there are even better numbers out there now.