Andruw’s Favorite Betting Props for Week Four of the NFL Season
Honestly, last week wasn’t good for us on our prop betting. We didn’t hit a single bet but I know for a fact we are coming back stronger than ever. Week Four is where you feel as if you have a good understanding of teams' offensive and defensive schemes. By now, you should have a good sense of quarterback tendencies and you should know who their favorite weapons are.
The first bet I like is the Arizona Cardinals -3.5. Let me let you in on a little secret, oddsmakers like to make lines that will encourage us to bet something that isn’t likely. The whole world just saw Jayden Daniels beat the Bengals on primetime, giving bettors around the world the feeling that “If the Commanders can beat the Bengals, they can definitely beat the Cardinals.” A rookie quarterback who is on a short week and is playing on the road has an extremely low chance of covering a 3.5-point spread. The Cardinals have been one of the better defenses this season and I believe they have the personnel to limit Daniels. The Commanders have been bottom five in both run and pass defense. The Cardinals are a top offense with players like Marvin Harrison Jr. and James Conner who are going to feast against this bad Commanders’ defense.
My second favorite prop comes from the same game. Marvin Harrison Jr.'s over 72.5 receiving yards are about as free as they come. In three games this year, the Commanders' secondary has given up 83 yards to Chris Godwin, 127 yards to Malik Nabers, and 118 yards to Ja’Marr Chase. Harrison Jr. has already shown us he can explode for big games when he had 130 yards against the Rams on only four catches. Rookie receivers only get better as the season goes on, this game is the perfect opportunity for Harrison Jr. to show why he was drafted as a generational wide receiver prospect.
The last prop is Dalton Kincaid over 3.5 receptions. Last week against the Jaguars, Josh Allen finally threw the ball at least 30 times. In Allen’s most pass-heavy game of the season, Kincaid caught three balls on five targets. The Bills play the Ravens this weekend and the expectation is that the Bills won’t be able to rag-doll them like they have everyone else. Not only do I expect Allen to throw more, but I also expect Kincaid to lead the Bills in targets because of how bad the Ravens have been at covering tight ends. The Ravens let Jake Ferguson catch six balls for 95 yards and they let Brock Bowers catch nine balls for 98 yards. Four catches for arguably the Bills’ best receiving option shouldn’t be hard.
