Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green: Fade This Defense

In the 68 Ventures Bowl, Arkansas State takes on Bowling Green in one of three games the day after Christmas. Bowling Green is favored by around a touchdown, and the total is 52.5. These teams have faced a similar strength of schedule this year but have vastly different underlying statistics. I think there is an advantage on both sides of the ball for Bowling Green here, which is worth at least a touchdown.

When Bowling Green Is on Offense

Bowling Green’s offense isn’t anything spectacular, ranking slightly better than average in both PPA and Success Rate. The key here is how bad Arkansas State’s defense is. Arkansas State is ranked 128th or worse in Defense PPA and Success Rate per CollegeFootballData. On the year, this will be one of the worst FBS defenses Bowling Green has faced. The other comparable teams are Ball State, Western Michigan, and Kent State, who they beat by at least 18 points. The only other team in this category is Akron, who Bowling Green only beat by seven points, but that was back at the start of October. I don’t think this Bowling Green offense led by Connor Bazelak will have any resistance-scoring points here. Their running back, Terion Stewart, should have no problems on the ground either, with Arkansas State ranked in the bottom three of both Defense Rushing PPA and Success Rate. 

When Bowling Green Is on Defense

Contrary to Arkansas State, Bowling Green has had a very solid defense this year. According to CollegeFootballData, their defense finished the year ranked 34th or better in PPA, Success Rate, and Points per Opportunity, with especially good numbers against the pass. Arkansas State has a pretty balanced attack on offense, but with their passing game being the better of the two, I like the spot this puts Bowling Green in. Also, in Arkansas State’s last six games of the year, they didn’t face a team that was ranked higher than 80th in Defense PPA. I think this will be a huge advantage for this Bowling Green defense that is taking on a bottom-half Arkansas State offense.

Prediction

As alluded to, this is a clear mismatch on both sides of the ball in favor of Bowling Green. They also have big advantages in both coverage and tackling grades on PFF. Try your best to get Bowling Green at a touchdown or better, but I would still play this up to eight. As well, pay attention to the player opt-out information as much as you can, at the time of writing this, no key players have opted out, but anything can change. While we wait for the rest of the College Football Playoff to unfold, let’s try and make some money.