Betting Value Identified in Texans vs. Chiefs

The start of Saturday NFL games is upon us, with the first being the Houston Texans versus the Kansas City Chiefs. Both teams have clinched the playoffs and won their division, but there is still plenty to play for regarding seeding. Both Patrick Mahomes and Joe Mixon were injured in last week’s games but appear ready to play from interviews and practice reports. The spread currently has the Chiefs favored by three and a half points, with a total of 42.5 points. While researching this game, some key statistics led me to believe there would be a shortage of points scored.

Texans’ Offensive Struggles

As I mentioned last week, when the Texans played the Dolphins, this team has struggled offensively for most of the year. Other than their passing, which is slightly closer to average, their remaining key statistics put them near the bottom of the NFL in EPA, per SumerSports. This is going to be a real problem going up against the Chiefs' defense. The Chiefs’ defense ranks 12th in EPA/Play and success rate, along with sixth in EPA/Rush, with at least average statistics in other key categories. This is bad news for the Texans, who, even at home last week against a worse opponent, still only managed to score 20 points. A big part of this win came from turnovers by Tua Tagovailoa, who threw three interceptions. Mahomes hasn’t done that all year, for whatever it’s worth. Going into Arrowhead, I just don’t see how this team will put up points. It’s possible that C.J. Stroud can get something going through the air, but I don’t see it happening on the ground with how bad their run blocking has been.

Concerning Injuries

As I mentioned at the start, both Mixon and Mahomes were banged up last week. While it appears both will play, if this game gets out of hand or either player shows a sign of re-injury, I wouldn’t be shocked if these guys get pulled. While the Texans’ running game hasn’t been great, Mixon is still an extremely important asset. Now, I understand this is a tough thing to bank on, but coming down toward the end of the year with two teams that have already clinched the playoffs, it is a real possibility. The argument on the other side would be that the Chiefs are still in the driver's seat for the number one seed in the playoffs. This is true; they currently hold a 78% chance per ESPN to get the number one seed and, thus, the first-round bye. They just need to win one of their last three games to seal this since the Bills already have three losses. With that being said, I trust Andy Reid to make the right decision with Mahomes’ health. He is more important to this team to be healthy in the playoffs than risking a potential worst-case scenario injury.

Red Zone Matchups

The last main item that stuck out to me was how neither team benefits from their respective red zone matchups. Starting with touchdown percentage, the Chiefs’ offense is near last in the league at 26th, but the Texans’ defense is also 28th per TeamRankings. I view this more as a win for the Texans’ defense due to them also being eighth in EPA/Play in the red zone per SumerSports. Hopefully, a couple of key plays go our way, and some of those touchdowns turn into field goals or, better yet, failed fourth-down conversions. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs’ defense has been solid at limiting red zone touchdowns. They are ranked 12th, while the Texans’ offense is 18th. The Chiefs’ defense is around league average in red zone EPA as well.

Trends

As always, don’t bet solely on trends, but if you want some, I’ve got you covered. The Texans and Chiefs are a combined 10-18 to the over this year, with the Texans holding a league-worst 4-10 record per TeamRankings. Also, NFL divisional games go under at 59% per Action Network. This makes sense; if you are consistently facing these teams twice per day, you’re going to have a better read on them than anyone else. 

Prediction

As you can tell, I like the under in this game, specifically at anything above 41. This number has slowly risen a full point to 42.5 today, so I will be waiting to see if we can’t get a 43. For reference, 41, 43, and 44 are all key numbers when it comes to NFL totals, so I am not worried about it going back down to 41. I think we will see another poor game from the Texans’ offense, backed up by another good showing from their defense. Rooting for the under is never fun, but making money is, best of luck to all this weekend.