Betting Value on the Total in Clemson vs. Texas

It’s finally here, the College Football Playoff. Starting on Friday this week, we get four first-round matchups through Saturday. In the afternoon spot on Saturday, the ACC Champion Clemson Tigers take on the SEC runner-up Texas Longhorns. While researching the games this weekend, I found value in the total on this game. This year, Clemson and Texas have both trended toward the under when reviewing closing line totals. While you should never bet solely on trends, I think this game will also go under for a few other reasons.

Clemson’s Passing Attack

Clemson is one of the most frequent passing teams in the country, sitting at 17th in attempts per game, according to TeamRankings. Their strength, however, comes in the run game. Clemson ranks 15th or better in rushing PPA and rushing success rate per CollegeFootballData, whereas their passing game ranks 60th or better. Diving deeper into it, they haven’t even faced that many tough passing defenses this year. Only Georgia, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, and SMU ranked anywhere near above average on their schedule, and they failed to score more than 24 points in all of those games except against SMU. 

Texas’ defense is no pushover, either. Ranking inside the top eight in both defense passing PPA and success rate, they are also elite at stopping explosives. Clemson isn’t even an explosive passing team, ranking in the 60th percentile per GameOnPaper, but I still value this when predicting totals. Due to the fact they may struggle more than expected, I think Clemson will have to rely more on the run than normal. This is fine, given their success this year, but it will also keep the clock running, which is great for us. It is worth noting that Texas has a solid run defense, so Clemson will still have their work cut out for them on the ground.

Low Totals in Ranked Games

As I mentioned earlier, you never want to bet solely on trends, but they are great to use for supplemental information. While it is a small sample size, in ranked matchups this year, Clemson and Texas games have only averaged 44.3 and 40.2 points, respectively. Looking at Clemson’s ranked games, two of the three went under, with the one exception being the SMU game. For Texas, all of their six ranked games went under except for the Michigan game, which went over by one point. Honestly, this is normally a spot where I’d like to take the first half under in case it goes to overtime, but Texas and Clemson have done so well scoring early on I think I’ll opt for the full game.

Texas’ Offense to Struggle

Texas has struggled with injuries to their backfield all year, losing two key players before the year even began. This left Jaydon Blue as the only back on the team who was expected to play significant snaps. Blue was later joined by Quintrevion Wisner, who ended up taking more of the rushing attempts this year. Regardless, both of these guys are averaging around five yards per attempt, which is good but not elite. Clemson’s run defense isn’t anything special, but I think they can do enough to contain Wisner here. The reason I just say Wisner, and not Blue, is because Blue has only seen a total of seven snaps in the last two games. This could be from his fumble per game in the previous two before that, but for whatever reason, it seems Texas doesn't have a lot of faith in him right now.

Texas may also be in for a tough game through the air. Clemson’s passing defense, which ranks 30th or better in PPA and success rate, will be the best Texas has faced all year regarding those statistics. Notable defenses this year include Georgia, who they played twice, and Texas A&M. Small sample size again, but in those games, Texas only scored an average of 17 points.

Prediction

As stated throughout, I really like the under here, which is currently at 51.5. I would suggest getting this before it drops since 51 is the second most common college football total. Texas’ defense should take care of Clemson on offense and continue to cover for their offense in these big games. I like Texas to win here in a low-scoring affair.