Can Any Team Break the Week Six AP Poll’s National Champion Blueprint
Since March Madness 2004, the national champion has belonged to the group of 12 teams that sit at the top of the Week Six AP Poll. Although that seems like a random coincidence, the theory has validity to it when looking at the timing. At this point in the season, 95% of the major non-conference games have been played, with high-caliber tournaments giving teams a chance to prove themselves. History tells us the winner will be one of Tennessee, Auburn, Iowa State, Duke, Kentucky, Marquette, Alabama, Gonzaga, Florida, Kansas, Purdue, or Oregon. With 20 years in a row to back this stat, it is tough to go against. However, March is unpredictable in college basketball. Here is a list of teams outside of the AP Top 12 that have the best chance to debunk history.
Houston Cougars (5-3)
Although Houston already has three losses, two of them were to teams currently ranked in the top seven, and two of them were games that went to overtime. Houston ranked in the top 12 in offense efficiency and the top three in defensive efficiency, suggesting this team can play with anyone. This team brought back four starters from last season and has already battled against the best. With a lot of hype in the preseason, Houston still has the third-best odds to win the tournament, only behind Auburn and Duke. It’s a matter of cleaning up their ability to close out games, which will prove necessary come March.
UConn Huskies (7-3)
This UConn team is not off to as bright of a start this season. Flaws have shown, losing three straight games in the Maui Invitational to all unranked teams. They bounced back in a big way after their 0-3 tournament stint, with wins over Baylor and Texas. It’s impossible to count the Huskies out, however, considering they won back to back National Championships. With Dan Hurley at the head, this team will lean on elite coaching to turn the season around to make yet another run.
Texas A&M Aggies (8-2)
The Aggies got off to a slow start, dropping their first game to UCF. After the season opener, they have had impressive win after impressive win, with their only other loss being to a strong Oregon team. A&M surged towards March last season and brought back seven of their top eight scorers, looking to make noise late in the year again. Playing in one of the best conferences in college basketball, the SEC, they are primed to be prepared for another run yet again.
Of course, there is still a slight possibility some other squads come together with months left in the season. All of them are dark horses but have the talent and the credibility for March Madness runs. Michigan and Michigan State have been off to strong starts and have solid rosters, but the reputation of the Big Ten come playoff time is what holds them back. Ole Miss, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Cincinnati all have begun the season on fire, but there needs to be much more confident wins throughout the rest of the schedule. It’s still early in the season and odds are the winner comes out of the top 12, but there are always teams that do serious damage come March.
