Do or Die: How the Ravens Can Save Their AFC North Dreams in Week 16

Every NFL team dreams of having everything still in front of them when the calendar turns to December, with the playoffs right around the corner and teams battling for division titles and playoff spots. Entering Week 16, only one of the AFC divisions is still up for grabs, and that would be the AFC North. Currently, the Pittsburgh Steelers hold a one-game lead over the second-place Baltimore Ravens for the top spot in the AFC North. However, the division race is far from over, as the Ravens and Steelers are set to meet for the second time this season on Saturday afternoon at M&T Bank Stadium. For the Ravens to keep their hopes alive of overtaking their division rivals for the title by season’s end, they must start by taking care of business and securing a victory at home against Pittsburgh to leap into a tie with two games remaining. If not, the Ravens will have to watch the Steelers celebrate their first AFC North title since 2020 on their home turf, should Pittsburgh win in enemy territory on Saturday.

Heading into this week’s game, one of the biggest factors that will go a long way in determining the winner is which team can dominate the battle of the trenches. In their first matchup, back in Week 11, the Steelers gained the upper hand in this area, leading to Pittsburgh’s 18-16 victory. Throughout this season, including their game against the Ravens, the Steelers’ run defense has been one of the league’s best, entering Week 16 ranked fourth, allowing only 94.4 rushing yards per game. Most notably, the Steelers’ defense, led by veteran Cameron Heyward and edge rusher T.J. Watt, has successfully contained two of the league’s top rushing leaders, Eagles running back Saquon Barkley and Ravens back Derrick Henry. Back in Week 11, the Steelers' run defense shut down the Ravens' potent rushing attack, with Henry limited to just 65 yards on 13 carries. However, heading into Saturday’s rematch, the Steelers are dealing with injuries, as their star pass rusher Watt is managing an ankle sprain suffered in last week’s loss to the Eagles. The potential absence of the former Defensive Player of the Year, who missed the first practice on Tuesday, could open up an opportunity for the Ravens offense to find its rhythm and establish the run game early and often, which could help them knock off a Steelers team that has had Baltimore’s number in recent seasons.

For the Ravens' offense, offensive coordinator Todd Monken and quarterback Lamar Jackson should take a page from the Eagles' game plan in their victory over the Steelers last week to prevent Pittsburgh from securing another win. In their past nine meetings, the Ravens have struggled offensively, scoring fewer than 20 points in six of those games while losing eight of the last nine. The Eagles found success against Pittsburgh by involving their receivers early, controlling time of possession, and leaning on the run game late. While easier said than done, the Ravens, coming off a 35-point performance against the struggling Giants, are more than capable of dictating this game. They should focus on getting top receivers Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman involved in the first half against the Steelers' 22nd-ranked pass defense and rely on their four-time Pro Bowl running back to close out the game and keep their division hopes alive for another week. 

Ultimately, this standalone matchup on FOX at 4:30 p.m. EST will be another classic Ravens-Steelers clash, with both sides looking to outmuscle and out-physical each other to come out on top. For the Ravens to win, they’ll need to play much cleaner football than in the first meeting, when Baltimore committed 12 penalties for 80 yards and turned the ball over three times, two fumbles and an interception. While the Ravens have recorded the most penalties with 117 and the most penalty yards with 997 through 15 weeks, they’ve shown the ability to be more disciplined at times and limit self-inflicted wounds. If they can do that against the Steelers, they’ll put themselves in an excellent position to avoid a repeat of the first game.