Dolphins vs. Texans: Who Will Dominate in This Must-Watch NFL Clash?
Heading into Week 15 off a bye, the 8-5 Houston Texans host the 6-7 Miami Dolphins, who are coming off an overtime win against the New York Jets. Miami kicked a field goal with less than one minute left to tie it up, got the ball first in overtime, and took it to the house. Since Miami got Tua Tagovailoa back from injury in Week Eight, the Dolphins are 4-3 and still not technically eliminated from the playoffs. The Texans, however, have an estimated 95% chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN. This game will take place on Dec. 15th at 1 p.m. Eastern Time. Currently, the Texans are favored by three points, and the total is set at 47 points.
Texans’ Offense vs. Dolphins’ Defense
It hasn’t been a bad season for the Texans per se, but definitely not what was expected after C.J. Stroud’s rookie season. With the bye week behind them, now will be the time for this team to show what they are truly made of. Starting with the offense, things haven’t been pretty. The Texans are 22nd in EPA/Play and 29th in success rate per SumerSports. Stroud hasn’t been great, either. Out of quarterbacks with at least 150 snaps this year, he is 25th in EPA/Play and 31st in success rate. To compare this to last year, of quarterbacks with at least 300 snaps, Stroud was sixth in EPA/Play and ninth in success rate. It’s entirely possible that the injuries to Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs threw him off, but if we don’t see a spark out of him in this game, I am afraid this is what we’ll get for the rest of the year.
Miami’s pass defense hasn’t been noteworthy either, which is good news for the Texans. The Dolphins have below-average EPA/Play and success rate numbers, followed by 20th in pass rush, 31st in coverage, and 32nd in tackling per PFF. I compared how Stroud has faired against other poor pass defenses this year but couldn’t find many data points. This was because the Texans have only faced two bottom-10 pass defenses when looking at EPA. In one game, Stroud went off against the Jaguars. In the other, he had a decent game against the Patriots, but it is hard to tell for certain due to the game script.
The Texans have done poorly this year running the ball as a team, but Joe Mixon has been great on his own. Mixon is ranked 15th in EPA/Rush for running backs with at least 100 carries. The mention of the bad statistics as a team is likely attributed to their backups and Mixon’s three-game absence. There is more bad news for the Texans, though: the Dolphins’ run defense has been solid this year, they are ninth in EPA/Rush and 5th in PFF’s run defense statistic. This, unfortunately, puts the pressure back on Stroud if Mixon can’t get the ground game going.
Dolphins’ Offense vs. Texans’ Defense
The Dolphins have had a bit of an odd year with Tua’s injury and subsequent time off; therefore, it can be hard to compare my normal statistics. Just looking at Tua’s last four games, though, he has been on fire. His combined average during this span is roughly 325 yards, 75% completion percentage, and almost three touchdowns per game. This span has gone through good pass defenses, like the Packers, and bad ones, like the Raiders. Also, the good news for Tua is that he shouldn’t have to play in the cold, which he has continued to struggle with. The Texans have had an elite pass defense to counter, ranking third in EPA and 12th per PFF. Unfortunately, the team got news today that Jalen Pitre, their starting slot corner, will be out for the rest of the year after tearing his pectoral. His backup will likely be M.J. Stewart, who hasn’t shown anything worth bragging about.
On the ground, the Dolphins and De’Von Achane have had a decent year, all things considered. Once again, this is hard to put numbers to due to Tua’s absence, which will cause defenses to naturally put more emphasis on the run. As well, Achane has been particularly effective through the passing game with how the offense was schemed and has actually struggled in a lot of games from an efficiency perspective on the ground. It probably doesn’t help that, according to PFF, the Dolphins are 22nd in run blocking, and it looks more likely than not that their starting left tackle, Terron Armstead, will miss this game due to injury. His backup should continue to be rookie Patrick Paul, who didn’t post fantastic numbers when he came in.
The Texans have done well to stop the run this year, ranking 12th in EPA, but will be without Azeez Al-Shaair due to his suspension for his hit on Trevor Lawrence. This is particularly big because Al-Shaair has one of the highest run-stop percentages per PFF in the entire league. This will be their first full game without him, so we’ll have to see how their linebackers hold up. When looking at players with relevant snaps, their next highest-rated run defender is the aforementioned Jalen Pitre, who is now out for the year. Look for the Dolphins backfield to have a good game here. The Texans have two elite edge defenders, but if the backs can get past them, all hell may break loose. Keep an eye on the injury report as well, even though Raheem Mostert hasn’t had a great year, he could be valuable in this game, even if only to give Achane a break.
Prediction
Overall, this was a tough game to handicap, as I really could see either team winning. The spread feels spot-on around a field goal in favor of the Texans, and I would lean towards the under, but I will be staying away due to the injuries and suspension. If you are interested in betting, my main look here, once more lines are released, will be on Achane’s over for rushing and receiving yards. With Pitre and Al-Shaair out, Achane should have a more advantageous matchup through the air and on the ground than what the books think. My other bet would be for Will Anderson Jr. to record a sack if it has reasonable odds. He will be going up against the backup left tackle Patrick Paul and, barring an egregious amount of double teams, should have plenty of success.
