Fantasy Quarterbacks to Target, Avoid, and Biggest Sleepers
Best Value: Kyler Murray - Arizona Cardinals
After missing half of last season, Murray looks to return to fantasy stardom. Being taken as the ninth-ranked quarterback on ESPN’s draft board, Murray is the guy to target much later than the expensive QBs. When healthy, he has averaged over 18 points per game in each year after his rookie season. In his last full season, Murray finished as the overall second-ranked quarterback behind only Josh Allen, averaging over 24 points per game. Granted Murray is fully healthy, but his rushing ability mixed with one of the highest-graded prospects in Marvin Harrison Jr. to throw to, Murray could be a league winner at his ADP.
Worst Value: C.J. Stroud - Houston Texans
Coming off one of the best rookie campaigns in history, Stroud only finished as the ninth-ranked quarterback. He’s already a proven, elite-level quarterback, but it’s a different story in the fantasy world. Stroud is currently being drafted as the fifth-best quarterback, which is not an ideal spot for a quarterback with no rushing upside. Stroud has a secure weekly floor, but the fifth-best quarterback is already taking him to his absolute ceiling. Tom Brady was the last quarterback to finish above fifth-best with less than 200 rushing yards in 2021. In that season, Brady threw for 5,316 yards along with 53 touchdowns. Stroud can absolutely improve from last year, especially with weapon upgrades in Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon, but it’s an extremely large task at hand.
Sleeper: Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars
Lawrence had an underwhelming season in 2023 but still finished as the overall 12th-best quarterback on a bad year. Now being drafted as the 17th quarterback off the board, Lawrence is absolutely worth a late-round snag that can re-establish himself as a top-10 fantasy quarterback. In 2022, he finished as the seventh-ranked quarterback and still has all the potential in the world, being one of the highest-ranked prospects in NFL history. The Jaguars certainly have high hopes for Lawrence, signing him to a five-year, $275 million deal over the offseason. It is up to Lawrence to prove that value entering his fourth season in the league.
Deep Sleeper: Bryce Young - Carolina Panthers
This one is all about potential. Young is ranked as the 29th QB, meaning he may not even be taken in most leagues. Although the Panthers are likely to remain as one of the bottom teams in the league, the 2023 first-overall pick steps into the season with a year of experience under his belt and added help on offense. The Panthers added Diontae Johnson and spent their first two draft picks on wide receiver Xavier Legette and running back Jonathon Brooks. Perhaps the biggest help of all was bringing in new offensive coordinator Brad Idzik. Idzik spent last season with the Buccaneers, helping Baker Mayfield achieve the best year of his career and a top-10 fantasy quarterback finish. Before Tampa Bay, Idzik was in Seattle, where he helped revive Geno Smith’s career, leading him to a top-seven QB finish in fantasy. The Panthers have made significant improvements to bring out the first overall potential in Young.
