How Far Can the Commanders Go Heading Into the Playoffs?
The Washington Commanders have defied almost all expectations set for them during the 2024 NFL season. Their rapid rise as a talented team culminated last night on Sunday Night Football, as the Commanders once again secured a dramatic victory, this time against rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and the Atlanta Falcons, with Penix making his first road start. Washington went on to hold off Atlanta in overtime with a 30-24 victory to clinch their first playoff berth since the 2020 season. This remarkable turnaround for the Commanders comes after a dismal 4-13 record last season, which placed them last in the NFC East Division. In the offseason, the organization underwent significant changes, starting with a new ownership group led by Josh Harris, which ended the drama-filled Dan Snyder era. The Commanders also hired longtime defensive coordinator Dan Quinn as their new head coach and used the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to select former LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels as they searched for their franchise quarterback.
The Commanders' success in 2024 has been nothing short of spectacular, with several dramatic wins throughout the season, which have led them to an 11-5 record and second place in their division, behind the Eagles. Most notably, some of their most dramatic wins have come against the Chicago Bears on a last-second Hail Mary attempt, a comeback victory at home against the Eagles in Week 16, an early-season Monday Night Football road win against Joe Burrow and the Bengals, and most recently, their win over the Falcons last night. At the heart of the Commanders' resurgence has been the stellar play of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who has emerged as a top contender for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Through 16 games, Daniels ranks 13th in passing yards with 3,530, is in the top 10 for passing touchdowns with 25, and holds the fourth-best QBR at 72.3. Daniels' dual-threat abilities, which have been compared to Ravens star quarterback Lamar Jackson, have helped lead the Commanders to back-to-back double-digit comeback victories over the past two weeks.
As the Commanders enter the playoffs next month, their ceiling could be higher than most experts are projecting, with one week left in the regular season. The strengths of the Commanders lie in Daniels' dynamic playmaking abilities and the resilience of the team under a respected head coach like Dan Quinn. They have shown they are not afraid of high-pressure moments multiple times this season. These excellent qualities could help Washington upset one of the top seeds in the playoffs, such as the Eagles, Vikings, or Lions. However, before the team and their fan base can get their hopes up for a surprising deep playoff run, they will need to shore up their vulnerabilities that could lead to a quick playoff exit, most notably their weak run defense. Entering Week 18 next Sunday, the Commanders hold the fifth-worst run defense, ranking 28th, having allowed an average of 136.7 rushing yards per game. Washington’s struggles against the run could be a major issue heading into the postseason, as they will face some of the league's top running backs, including Eagles star Saquon Barkley. Barkley became the ninth running back to amass 2,000 rushing yards in a single season against the Cowboys on Sunday afternoon and could potentially break Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record. However, if the Commanders can shore up their run defense and maintain their offensive momentum, led by Daniels and top wide receiver Terry McLaurin, nicknamed “Scary Terry,” Washington could surprise many and have a significant impact on how the playoffs unfold.
