Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Series Prediction
The Timberwolves vs Mavericks series will commence on May 22nd, 2024. For some people, the winner of this series will be the clear favorite to win the NBA championship. On FanDuel Sportsbook as of May 21st, 2024, the Timberwolves are the series favorites at -168 odds, but the Mavericks aren’t far behind at +142 odds. With the series odds being so close, I believe the winner of the series will be decided in no less than six games. Before I give you my prediction let me break down the stars in the series and both team's X factors.
Let's start with both teams' number one options Anthony Edwards and Luka Dončić. Both players are amongst the top stars in the league and impact winning in different ways. Dončić impacts the game with elite scoring and playmaking. The six-foot-seven-inch guard is also a great rebounder, making him a triple-double threat nightly. Edwards on the other hand is an elite scorer and an elite defender. Edward's playmaking and rebounding aren’t as good as Dončićs, but the gap defensively more than makes up for it.
Now let's look at both teams' number two options, Kyrie Irving and Karl-Anthony Towns. Different from their superstar counterparts, both Irving and Towns are inconsistent. There have been multiple games during this postseason where both Irving and Towns have scored under 15 points, which isn’t ideal when trying to compete for an NBA championship. In the first round against the Los Angeles Clippers Irving averaged 26.5 points per game on 51.6% shooting. In the following round against Oklahoma City Irving averaged just 15.7 points per game on 44% shooting. In the first round against the Phoenix Suns, Towns averaged 19.3 points per game on 53.1% shooting. In the following round against the Denver Nuggets Towns averaged 18.6 points on 51% shooting. Although his stats didn’t drop off as badly as Irvings, it was a drop-off nonetheless.
I believe the X factor for both teams will be their wing defenders. For the Minnesota Timberwolves, it is Jaden McDaniels and for the Mavericks it is P.J. Washington. Both players will be matched up against the opposing team's first or second options. For the Timberwolves if McDaniels can stay out of foul trouble when guarding Dončić and can consistently hit the corner three, they will be borderline impossible to beat. For the Mavericks if Washington can keep up his offensive production from the Thunder series while also making it difficult for Towns or Edwards to get comfortable, the Mavericks could take the series. In the Thunder series I mentioned, Washington averaged 17.6 points per game and shot 46.6% from three. When Washington has it going on the offensive end it becomes difficult to guard the Mavericks because you can’t help off of him.
Now for my prediction, I believe the Minnesota Timberwolves will win the series in six games. After watching both teams during their playoff runs, it has become clear to me that Anthony Edwards has been better than Luka Dončić. In this year's playoffs, Edwards has been better than Dončić in points per game, field goal percentage, three-point percentage, free-throw percentage, and steals per game. Edwards also has more dimensions to his game. Dončićs game is predicated on offensive output and whenever he doesn’t have it going offensively it is hard to find him doing well anywhere else. Edwards is the opposite because whenever he isn’t impacting the game offensively he is doing it defensively. Look at Game Seven of the Minnesota vs Denver series. In that game, Edwards shot 25% from the field but he was able to lockdown Jamal Murray. With the Timberwolves having both homecourt advantage and the best player in the series, I believe they will win this series.
