NFL 2024: AFC North Predictions
The AFC North is arguably the toughest division in the NFL. The Pittsburgh Steelers have finished at or above .500 for 17 straight seasons under head coach Mike Tomlin. The Baltimore Ravens have the two-time MVP Lamar Jackson. You could argue that the Cincinnati Bengals have the best quarterback and wide receiver duo in the league with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, and the Cleveland Browns have a top-five defense in the NFL led by Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward. It’s safe to say that the division got better this year because of the additions made by each team. The Bengals added to their offensive line, the Steelers brought in two quarterbacks, the Ravens signed top-five running back Derrick Henry, and the Browns signed Za’Darius Smith to help their defensive line. With all these additions, you may ask yourself, who will win the AFC North? I am here to answer your questions and give you my AFC North predictions.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-10
Have you ever heard the saying “all good things must come to an end?” Well, that is how I feel about Mike Tomlin and his record of 17 consecutive seasons with a record at or above .500. The Steelers don’t have an elite side of the ball they can rely on to win games. Their defense is formidable but at best they rank third in the division. It’s hard for me to be high on the Steelers when they easily have the worst quarterback in the division. If the Steelers weren’t in one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL, maybe they could have a successful season. Their offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is also someone I am not confident in. Smith was the head coach for the Atlanta Falcons from 2021-2023. In that stretch, the Falcons finished 26th, 15th, and 26th in offensive points per game. Those numbers are alarming because the Falcons had a top-10 offensive line, were in a weaker division, and drafted multiple first-round offensive players that fans said were “underutilized.” There isn't enough juice in the Steelers' offense for me to be higher on them.
3. Cleveland Browns: 8-9
The Browns were one of the most surprising teams last year. Joe Flacco went from not being on a roster to leading the Browns to a 4-1 record at the end of the season, securing them a playoff spot. The Browns were 11-6 last season, so you may be wondering why I have them losing three more games. My reasoning for this is because of the quarterback play. Deshaun Watson is currently being paid as a top-10 quarterback but his contract hasn’t matched his production. Reports throughout training camp have been that Watson has been inaccurate. He has also been dealing with “arm soreness” and after tonight he would have officially not taken a snap during the NFL preseason games. If Watson can prove me wrong, and play as well as he did when he was a part of the Houston Texans, then maybe the Browns can outperform my 8-9 prediction.
2. Baltimore Ravens: 10-7
Having the Baltimore Ravens as the second-best team in the AFC North may seem like blasphemy to some but let me explain. Although the Ravens are coming off a year where they had the NFL MVP, the best record in football, and a top-five defense to go with a top-10 offense, I am expecting a drop-off in the team's production this season. Everyone has been talking about the addition of star running back Derrick Henry but they never talk about what Henry is coming into. The Ravens lost three starters from their offensive line this offseason. With the departure of Morgan Moses, John Simpson, and Kevin Zeitler I can guarantee the offensive line will not look as good as it did last year. Another thing to look into with the Henry signing is his age. Henry is 30 years old, and this isn’t young in running back years. Studies show that on average running backs see a decline in production after the age of 28. Henry is now two years removed from the fall of age and you have to wonder if this is the year Father Time catches up to him. Not only has the offense taken a hit, but the defense has as well. The Ravens lost their defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald this offseason and this is huge because he was their defensive mastermind. In Macdonald's two years as the Ravens' defensive coordinator, they finished third and first in defensive ranking. It will be hard for first-time play-caller Zach Orr to replicate what Macdonald did. I still expect the Ravens to be a playoff team but I doubt they can be as good as they were in 2023.
1. Cincinnati Bengals: 11-6
The team I have representing the AFC North is the Cincinnati Bengals. I haven’t been this bought into the Bengals since their 2021-22 season in which they went to the Super Bowl. Let’s start with their additions to the offensive line. The Bengals signed Trent Brown in free agency and drafted Amarius Mims in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. The problem with the Bengals since Joe Burrow got drafted was the strength of the offensive line. With these new additions, analysts project them to be a middle-of-a-pack offensive line which is all they need to be because of how good Burrow is. The Bengals also retained star wide receiver Tee Higgins. If the Bengals can get a contract extension for Ja’Marr Chase done sooner rather than later, I see them having a top-five offense and becoming a serious title contender. Burrow is the only active quarterback that has beaten Patrick Mahomes in a playoff game. That tells me that when healthy they are the biggest threats to the back-to-back Super Bowl-winning Kansas City Chiefs.
