NFL Championship Weekend: Best Bets to Cash In
With NFL Championship Weekend coming, I am here to break down everything you need to know when placing your bets. There will be player probs, spreads, parlays, and everything quintessential to succeed this weekend. Both games are poised to be exciting; we have three quarterbacks with playoff experience and one who arguably is having the best rookie season of all time. We also have three coaches who have been in the Super Bowl, with defenses who have been playing well as of late. These games can go either way, but here is a full breakdown of the best bets to place.
The first game on Sunday is the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders. Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders look to come into Philadelphia with another upset after beating the top-seeded Detroit Lions last round. The Commanders have silenced all the doubters and proven they belong with the best teams. The Eagles have relied on their defense to create turnovers and lean into their potent rushing attack with Saquon Barkley. This is the recipe for success with the Eagles, but it will be tough against a team that hasn’t turned the ball over this postseason.
Therefore, my favorite bet for this game is Washington Commanders spread +6.5. They have repeatedly proved they can perform in key moments, and Jayden Daniels looks unflappable. In their most recent matchup, the Commanders came out on top 36-33 in a thrilling matchup, scoring 22 points in the fourth quarter. Eagle's defense ranks first in yards allowed per game and third in touchdowns allowed this season, and they have been nothing short of being dominant. With that said, Jalen Hurts hasn’t stepped up this postseason and hasn’t surpassed 150 passing yards in either game. This is why we will see a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley if the Eagles want to win this game. Saquon has been averaging 29 touches a game this postseason, and that number will have to be the same, if not higher, if they want to control this game. Look for Saquon Barkley over rushing yards 125.5. This postseason, he is averaging 162 yards on the ground, pairing that with the Commanders' below-average rushing defense, ranked 29th this season in rushing yards allowed per game.
Three other bets are Terry McLaurin over receiving yards 64.5, Jayden Daniels over passing yards 223.5, and Jalen Hurts under passing yards 179.5. The Eagles defense ranks number one in passing, and it will be difficult for Terry McLaurin and Jayden Daniels, but there will be plenty of opportunity. With other players stepping up, such as Dyami Brown and Zach Ertz, the Eagles won’t be able to hone in on McLaurin, leaving him with opportunities to get open. As stated earlier, Jalen Hurts hasn’t been able to get over 150 yards passing this postseason, and I believe it will be more of the same. Marshon Lattimore just played his best game in a Commanders uniform, and the Eagles have looked disoriented with their passing game, so look for that to continue.
Favorite Bet: Commanders +6.5
Favorite Player Prop: Saquon over rushing yards 125.5
Favorite Parlay: Terry McLaurin over receiving yards 64.5, Jayden Daniels over passing yards 223.5, and Jalen Hurts under passing yards 179.5
The second game is the Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills. These two teams know each other, and this will be the second time Patrick Mahomes will face off against Josh Allen in the AFC Championship. The spread for this game is -1.5 in the Chiefs favor, mainly due to them being at home, as the Bills beat them earlier in the year 30-21. Both these defenses have been solid throughout the year, and I don’t believe either has an advantage in that department. Although that is the case, the Chiefs have repeatedly proved that they can capitalize when the opportunity presents itself, whether a sack, blocked kick, or long return. If the Chiefs can get one of these big plays they always come up with, Patrick Mahomes will make it 4-0 against the Bills in the playoffs, which is why I like Chiefs spread -1.5. Josh Allen is playing out of this world, but the Chiefs won’t give them the same opportunities the Ravens gave them. The Chiefs offense hasn’t turned the ball over in the last eight consecutive games, and I believe that paired with one great special team play, gives the Chiefs another Super Bowl appearance.
The Bills will have to make this a high-scoring affair if they look to win, and Josh Allen has been producing that all year with his legs. He had 12 rushing touchdowns in the regular season, including two last week, against Baltimore. The Chiefs defense can be volatile in this area, allowing the eighth most rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. Therefore, my favorite player prob is Josh Allen, anytime touchdown +100. Travis Kelce has been dominant in the playoffs, and he dominated again last week, having seven receptions, 117 yards, and one touchdown. In the playoffs, he averages seven receptions, 87 yards, and nearly one touchdown per game. Simply put, he steps up in the big moments, and that’s why I like Travis Kelce over 67.5 receiving yards. Kareem Hunt has been the Chiefs top running back for the past four games, leading in carries and rushing yards. His current line is 35.5, which he has consistently gone over this year, including the one playoff game. On top of that, Baltimore had three rushers over 35 yards last week.
The last thing I am looking at is the over of this game, which is 47.5. The previous two games have gone over fifty points, and I believe these quarterbacks bring out the best in each other. The Chiefs offense hasn’t scored over thirty this entire year, but if they want to win this game, they might have to. Josh Allen is the favorite to win MVP this year and will be playing to beat the Chiefs for the first time in his career in the playoffs. This game will come down to the end, and it will be decided which quarterback can make the best plays.
Favorite Bet: Chiefs -1.5
Favorite Player Prop: Josh Allen anytime touchdown
Favorite Parlay: Travis Kelce over receiving yards 67.5, Kareem Hunt over rushing yards 35.5, and over 47.5 points.
Both games prove to be exciting, with great quarterbacks and coaches. We have Patrick Mahomes looking to three-peat, Josh Allen trying to win MVP and his first Super Bowl, Saquon Barkley looking to rewrite his story, and Jaden Daniels looking to finish the most outstanding rookie season ever. Enjoy the games, sit back and relax. With that said, always bet responsibly.
