Notre Dame vs. Penn State: A Spot in the CFP Final Awaits

In many ways, the second round of the College Football Playoff delivered in a way that the first round didn’t. We had a double overtime, an extremely tight Georgia versus Notre Dame game, and got to witness a Boise State team in the playoffs in a game that stayed competitive until late. Through it all, we’ve cut it down to just four teams, each with historic programs. Some have argued for yet another playoff system with either more teams or fewer, and maybe there’s merit in those arguments, but we know one thing for certainty: the stage is set for a thrilling finish to the College Football Playoff. Neither of these games has a spread larger than six points in a college football sport, where people criticize the lack of competition in games. For Notre Dame and Penn State, this matchup is as evenly matched as you find in college football, as neither team is expecting an easy win. Fans can tune in on January 9th, 7:30 p.m. EST on ESPN for what should be an action-packed contest. 

Keys to Victory for Notre Dame

Often, in sports, we talk about getting offensive players going. Whether that is your number one receiver, the quarterback, or even your running back. Rarely do we discuss getting defensive guys on a roll, but I think that’s really how this Notre Dame game has become such an unstoppable force late in the season. Sophomore safety Adon Shuler has become a weapon for this defensive squad, having 13 total tackles and a forced fumble between Notre Dame’s two playoff games. His teammate safety, senior Xavier Watts, has similarly been dominant. Watts has accumulated 17 total tackles and an interception in the playoff run. I think Notre Dame can allow themselves to maintain a fast tempo on offense, knowing their defense can hold opponents and even create turnovers. 

One of the ways Notre Dame was able to expose the Georgia defense was on quarterback scrambles by Riley Leonard. I expect Penn State to be prepared for those plays and run plenty of quarterback spies against him in this game. Notre Dame needs to get sophomore running back Jeremiyah Love back involved in order to counter that defensive adjustment. He ran for 108 yards against Indiana and then completely disappeared against Georgia, rushing for just 19 yards. I think getting him more touches in space will create problems for the Penn State defense. 

Keys to Victory for Penn State

Penn State will be somewhat looking in the mirror, facing this Notre Dame team. Neither will amaze with style plays or creative offensive set-pieces, but they’re tough teams and can stop opposing offenses with ease. For Penn State’s defense, everything starts with outside linebacker Abdul Carter. The six-foot-three senior has been giving offensive coordinators nightmares as he always seems to be making plays behind the line of scrimmage. Carter is currently projected as a top-10 NFL pick, but he’s not the only player on his defensive squad that will likely make the NFL. Dani Dennis-Sutton has similarly been dominant on the defensive edge position and is a likely second-rounder. In the secondary, safety Jaylen Reed has quietly made a name for himself with a sack and eight total tackles last game against Boise State. I think Penn State should continue to put pressure against Notre Dame and utilize the athleticism they possess on all three levels of defense. 

Offensively, Penn State has so many weapons it can be tough to uncover where they want to go with the football. They use a running-back-by-committee style of play, with backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton both having rushed for over 1,000 yards this season. For me, though, it’s been tight end Tyler Warren who has been the difference maker. The senior from Mechanicsville, Virginia, has been impossible to match up against. He is six foot six inches and has a sub 4.7, 40-yard speed. Penn State needs to feed him the ball as much as they can early in this game, take a lead, and then use their running back duo to close it out. 

Prediction

I think the bread and butter for both teams is their defensive prowess. Penn State and Notre Dame sit directly next to each other, ranking fifth and sixth in total defense, respectively. If there is one big play that is the difference in this game, I expect it to come from either team’s defensive unit. In a low-scoring, back-and-forth affair, I’m taking the Nittany Lions 24-17.