Ohio State vs. Texas: Which Team to Back in the Semifinal?
Ohio State and Texas will take the stage Friday down at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. This is one of two College Football Playoff Semifinal games that will be happening this week. Ohio State, currently favored by six points, has looked incredible in these last two games after losing to Michigan. Texas, on the other hand, has looked a little more vulnerable in their final stretch of the season. This was most recently shown by an overtime win against Arizona State in the Quarterfinal. Ohio State and Texas are both teams no one is extremely shocked to be in this spot, but only one can advance.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Last week, I correctly picked Ohio State to cover the spread in their game against Oregon. I did not, however, have any idea they were going to win in such a convincing fashion. If you didn’t watch the game, Ohio State was up 34-8 at halftime and never let Oregon have a chance in the second half. Also, this isn’t new news, but Jeremiah Smith is awesome and I am really looking forward to seeing how Texas’ defense schemes ways to stop him. A lot of this handicap of Ohio State in this matchup is the same as last week. Their offensive line is still not where they want it to be, but they played well enough to secure the win. However, Texas has a great pass rush ranking sixth per PFF, so they will have their work cut out for them again.
Where I think this game will be different or has to be for Ohio State to win, is running the ball. Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson performed well in the win against Oregon, both rushed for over 85 yards. They are going to have to repeat that performance, or something similar, to beat Texas. Texas is ranked third in Defensive Passing Plays PPA and fourth in Success Rate per CollegeFootballData. On the ground, they are still elite on the PPA portion, but down to 61st in Success Rate. I have to think Ohio State is aware of this, and to add on to that, Texas is going to do everything it can to shut down Jeremiah Smith, which should leave us with a less packed box. I like Ohio State’s chances on offense here against a Texas defense that hasn’t been tested consistently.
Texas Longhorns
Texas’ offense, while not to the elite numbers that Ohio State is, has still been good. Texas ranks 28th or better in both PPA and Success Rate, with better numbers from the pass than the run. They have performed well in finishing drives, or points scored inside the opponent’s 40 as well, but have struggled with production from their offensive line. They also rank 95th in Havoc Allowed to Ohio State’s seventh-ranked Havoc-creating defense, which would be a real problem. I think Texas will still find a way to score points, but after watching them against Arizona State, I am worried it may not be enough. Ohio State has near-elite metrics in the bulk of the defensive statistics I look at. Their main flaw is poor production in Line Yards and Stuff Rate, but this isn’t an area Texas is even average at.
From the player side of things, I know everyone is itching to see Arch Manning, but I don’t think Texas is going to switch it up this late in the year. At best, we may see him come in for a designed run in the red zone. Quinn Ewers is going to continue throwing the ball to his favorite target Matthew Golden and whatever other help he can get, which at this point seems like just their tight end Gunnar Helm. Texas’ passing attack is going to have to be at their best game due to the potential lack of production from their backfield. Between Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue, it seems like they either have a great day for over 100 yards, or average two and a half per carry for 45. Ohio State also does a great job at preventing rush explosives, ranking in the 93rd percentile per GameOnPaper.
Prediction and Best Bet
I feel confident Ohio State will get the win here, but six points is a little too many for me to back against Texas from a gambling perspective. If this falls back down across the board at five and a half, I would consider it. One angle I do like is trying to back Ohio State in the rushing attack. With all eyes on Jeremiah Smith, I am hoping Ohio State will have an easier time running the ball than usual against a team that has shown to be vulnerable. My favorite bet in this game is TreVeyon Henderson over 44.5 rushing yards, most books have it around 47.5 currently, but you shop around for the best number. I would take this into the low 50s.
