Predicting Who Will Be Next for Justin Gaethje in the Lightweight Division
After a year-long hiatus following a brutal knockout loss to Max Holloway, Justin Gaethje made a triumphant return with a decisive victory over Rafael Fiziev. Despite being the underdog, Gaethje impressed with powerful strikes, well-timed hooks, and even some effective grappling. This win was crucial for him, as it allowed him to maintain his top-five ranking in the lightweight division. Fiziev, who entered the fight ranked No.11, posed a significant threat, and a loss could have pushed Gaethje several spots down from his number three ranking. Even Gaethje himself admitted that another title run would have been nearly impossible if he had lost.
Following the victory, speculation immediately began about Gaethje’s next move. UFC commentator Jon Anik and others have suggested that Gaethje could be in line for a title shot. A similar situation played out last year when Dustin Poirier defeated rising contender Benoît Saint Denis. Despite being ranked third at the time, Poirier was granted a fight against Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev. However, the current lightweight division presents a more complex landscape.
The UFC is stacked with contenders, and featherweight champion Ilia Topuria is expected to make the jump to lightweight. Many believe the UFC would prefer to match Topuria against Makhachev, possibly at UFC 317 during International Fight Week. Ilia has hinted at fight news on his social media, adding fuel to the speculation. If Topuria gets the title shot, Gaethje's path to a championship fight becomes less straightforward. Another factor in the equation is Charles Oliveira, the number two ranked contender. Oliveira is coming off a victory against a higher-ranked opponent in Michael Chandler, making a strong case for his own title opportunity. If the UFC prioritizes Oliveira, Gaethje may need one more win to solidify his claim for a championship fight.
If Topuria faces Makhachev, the UFC could book a number one contender fight between Arman Tsarukyan and Charles Oliveira. In that scenario, Gaethje might find himself facing the loser of that fight or potentially the loser of a Topuria vs. Makhachev matchup. A victory in either scenario would leave little doubt that Gaethje deserves another title shot. While his future remains uncertain, one thing is clear: Justin Gaethje’s return to form has kept him in the title conversation. Now, it’s just a matter of who he faces next and whether he can secure one last win to earn another shot at UFC gold.
