Showdown in SoFi: Chargers Clash with Buccaneers in Week 15
Few games this week have bigger playoff implications than this one between the Los Angeles Chargers, 8-5, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7-6. The Chargers are trying to stay on pace with the Ravens as they compete for the fifth seed in the very competitive AFC. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, look to maintain their one-game lead over the Falcons in the close-knit race for the NFC South. In a matchup of hungry teams that are both performing well above preseason expectations, fans can expect an entertaining battle in the late afternoon slate.
How the Chargers Win This Game
The Chargers need to stick with what they are good at, slowing the game down, running the football, and limiting mistakes. The Chargers won’t always wow you with explosive plays, high-tempo offense, and quarterback magic like we see elsewhere in the NFL. Los Angeles is extremely methodical, especially when on offense. At 30.9 seconds in between plays, the Chargers rank 30th in offensive tempo in the NFL. Playing at this slow pace not only allows offensive coordinator Greg Roman to find the right call on his playsheet but also allows Justin Herbert to analyze the defense and audible when necessary. This playstyle is the centerpiece of a Jim Harbaugh-led football team, who was known for running such offenses in his successful tenure at Michigan. I think maintaining this pace will pay dividends against a Tampa Bay team that likes to stay on the field itself.
It will take more than controlling the clock, however, to win this football game. The Chargers need to stick to their run-heavy offensive attack. Los Angeles suffered two weeks ago when starting running back J.K. Dobbins went down with an MCL knee sprain and was placed on the injured reserve. Gus Edwards has since come in to fill that starting role and has struggled to find the same success. He’s going to need to get going this week to give the Chargers a chance. This team, maybe more than any other team in the NFL, relies on running the football to open up throwing lanes for their quarterback. The Chargers don’t pass it a lot, averaging 28.4 passing attempts per game, which ranks 30th in the NFL, but when they do, they are not afraid to air it out. In fact, Herbert ranks among the league leaders in air yards per pass attempt. If they can find a way to maintain an effective ground game with Edwards, watch out for the Chargers to utilize one of the league’s best arms in Justin Herbert down the stretch.
One of the reasons the Chargers feel so comfortable with letting Herbert make these aggressive plays is how safe he is with the football. He ranks at the top of the league in ball security among qualified starters, having thrown just one interception all year. In many ways, limiting mistakes is the primary reason the Chargers have had such a successful season so far. They have just 0.5 giveaways and 5.7 penalties per game, which ranks first and fifth in the league, respectively. Continuing to put pressure on opposing offenses to make plays instead of gifting opponents field position will make the Chargers a very tough team to beat.
How the Buccaneers Win This Game
The Buccaneers’ biggest challenge entering this game will be protecting Baker Mayfield. The Chargers have a ferocious defensive front seven, headlined by Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. When those two are busy eating up blocks, it has been second-year linebacker Tuli Tuipulotu who has terrorized quarterbacks behind the line of scrimmage. These three are the main contributors to the Chargers’ three sacks per game this season, which ranks fifth in the NFL. If the Buccaneers want to have a chance in this game, they will need to find a way to protect Mayfield and get the ball out quickly.
One of the best ways to do just that might be finding Bucky Irving out of the backfield. The Buccaneers needed someone to step up with the season-ending injury to Chris Godwin in Week Seven. Thus far, Irving has done just that. He rushed for 152 yards and a touchdown in his last full game at the Panthers before leaving early last week against the Raiders with a back injury. Irving is listed as questionable right now, but if he’s available on Sunday, look for Mayfield to find the rookie early and often.
Tampa Bay tends to get better late in games, thriving in high-pressure situations. They rank third in fourth-quarter points per game with 8.8. If the Buccaneers can stay within reach as they approach the end of this game, it will put Mayfield and company in a familiar and comfortable position to win it. Their red zone offense is extremely strong, ranking fourth in touchdown percentage, giving them a unique advantage if they need points late. I think head coach Todd Bowles should rely on a conservative play-calling strategy against this very mistake-free Los Angeles team just to give Baker Mayfield the ability to win or close out the game late.
Prediction
Oddsmakers believe this game will be very close, giving Los Angeles just three points on the spread at home. I tend to agree with them. I think both teams lean on the run early, making for a very fast first quarter. As we get deeper into the game and approach the second half, I think we’ll see both quarterbacks toss haymakers in hopes of gaining an advantage through the air. I expect very few turnovers, great defense, and not a lot of points. I’m taking the team with slightly better players in skill positions and superior coaching. I have the Chargers winning a close one, 20-13.
