The Curious Case of Pete Alonso

What is the value of a baseball player? Can one put a price on hope? The value of joy and dreams is indeterminate. Sport as a whole can provide all of those three. In this case, one can pinpoint a cost and that is; the payroll. The only people who can control that are the owners of the team. As evidenced by multiple teams offering Juan Soto over 700 million dollars the only limit on contracts and payroll is whatever the billionaires are willing to spend. So what does this mean, if Steve Cohen really wanted to he could pay Pete Alonso $180 million over six years and he could get injured in Spring Training and never hit another homer for the Mets, and the organization would still be fine in the long run. So the rest of the article assumes that all of the organizations are operating under some relative fiscal constraint and whether or not it is exclusively a good business decision to resign Pete Alonso and if so at what rate. It is important in cases like this to try and take emotion out of it as well as recency bias. This includes how his not up to his standards 2024 regular season played out as well as the magical postseason run. 

Comparison Contracts

The first step in analyzing what is fair market value is to view other first baseman contracts. Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, and Matt Olson got, respectively, six years for $27 million AAV, five years for $26 million AAV, and eight years for $21 million AAV. Freeman and Goldschmidt were 32 when they signed, while Olson was 27. The above are all elite offensive players as well as above-average to elite defensively. However, the positional value of the first base helps to keep the total value of the contracts down. With these contracts, one can expect an above-average first baseman hitting the open market to command an AAV of around $25 million a year with a contract expiring around the age of 35 or 36. 

How Good Is Pete Alonso?

So, we’ve established what an above-average first baseman can expect to receive in free agency. Now, is Pete Alonso projected to continue being an above-average first baseman? Even among this relatively down year, he ranked first among first basemen for home runs, second in runs scored, and sixth in RBIs, slugging, and OPS. Over his career, he never ranked lower than third in homers or sixth in RBIs for the position, as well as leading in both categories as recently as 2022. Now, this past season was a mixed bag for him when diving into his advanced stats. He had the lowest line drive and fly ball percentage of his career combined with the highest ground ball percentage. Plus, on the decreased number of fly balls that he hit, fewer are going out with the lowest fly ball to homer ratio of his career. That, combined with his highest strikeout percentage since 2020, is a troubling trend for a power hitter. Diving in even further to the batted ball data, he hit to the opposite field for most of his career while pulling it the least. That by itself is not troubling; however, combined with the verticality data, it implies he is hitting the ball on the ground to the opposite field, from which we could infer he is being late to the ball. 

All of this led to Alonso having the lowest slugging of his career as well as the lowest wOBA, weighted on-base average, of his career over a full season. These aren’t outliers, as his expected slugging and expected wOBA were also the lowest of his career outside of the shortened 2020 season. As the eye test could have told you, this past regular season definitely didn’t feel like the best version of Pete Alonso. Despite that, his hard-hit-and-barrel percentage was around his career averages. He also walked and struck out the most he has since 2019 and 2020, respectively. 

Those numbers would lead one to think that Alonso was working deeper counts, and that’s backed up by his plate discipline data. He has seen the most pitches of his career in the zone but swung at them with the lowest rate of his career. When he sees pitches in the zone and swings, his contact rate is in line with his career norms. While his outside-zone contact rate is his lowest since 2020. So, when Alonso got good pitches to hit, he swung at them at lower rates but was still able to do damage. However, he had less success than in years past with bad pitches. Analyzing his specific pitch-type data further backs up those previous numbers. Pete had his best year ever against fastballs while seeing them the least he had in his career. He also was seeing sliders the most and had his worst year ever against them. 

So, while his advanced data is a bit of a mixed bag, it is correctable. If Alonso is more aggressive earlier in counts and looks to pull good pitches, he could return to his previous highs. As evidenced by his barrel rate, his bat-to-ball skills seem to still be there. However, one can not count on 53 homers every year. Zips’ projections have him increasing his homers, RBIs, and average next year to 37, 111, and .245, respectively. This past season, those totals in both home runs and RBIs would have been first among first basemen and top ten overall in the MLB. 

So we’ve established that his bat is above average for the position with the potential to be elite. His defensive metrics place him around, if not slightly below average. His UZR came in at the highest of his career at almost dead average, at .4, while his outs above average, OAA, was the lowest of his career at negative eight. Fielding metrics are always subject to some degree of variability, but the data says that at his best, Alonso can be slightly above average, but more often than not, he’s below the 50th percentile. 

Based on his stats and career-long performance, Pete Alonso has demonstrated that he has been a solid first baseman with the occasional voyeur into the elite. It is never wise to let perfection be the enemy of good. Comparing Alonso to the previous Mets first baseman lends a little perspective as he has outperformed Lucas Duda, Ike Davis, and Wilmer Flores by leaps and bounds. As well as, fellow lumbering contemporaries such as Josh Bell, Jake Burger, and Kyle Schwarber, Pete comes out on top. 

What Is Pete Alonso the Free Agent Worth?

Going solely off of fWAR this past season, Alonso provided about $17 million in value. Compared to $29, $31, and $23 million over the previous three seasons. Based on his decline in traditional and advanced stats as well as his age, an estimate over the next few years in the mid to low $20s would be perfectly reasonable and maybe even lower if extended out past the next four seasons. So, as established in the first section, an above-average to elite first baseman can expect to be under contract through 36 years of age at around $25 million a year. The value Alonso has provided has exceeded that number, but factoring in his relative decline, that number might be a bit of a stretch. Based on his stats, a four-year deal at $20 million AAV is what the baseball value of what he would provide seems adequate. However, based on open market forces, five years, and maybe $25 million, is certainly not out of the question but would be above the arbitrary limit of what a bargain would be. 

At What Contract Should the Mets Resign Pete Alonso?

Now, all of those numbers in the previous section could get thrown out the window if another team or even Steve Cohen gets antsy. However, I’d be hard-pressed to see Pete Alonso out-earn Goldschmidt or Freeman, who are better all-around first basemen, albeit they hit free agency later on in age, which could have suppressed their value. If the market doesn’t materialize the way Scott Boras foresees, Alonso could wind up taking a short-term deal, in which case the Mets should certainly be interested up to the high $20 million in AAV. A value deal would be around four years for $80 million, coming in at a clean $20 million AAV, which would certainly be palatable even for the Mets President of Baseball OPS, David Stearns. However, this number could certainly creep up to or even over $25 million for five years. At that point, it begins to skirt away from what would make sense for the Mets. It’s impossible to know what Pete Alonso will accomplish over the remainder of his baseball career, but based on the data that we have available to us, as well as his positional value and aging curve, paying him $125 million over five years is projected to be more than the value he would provide on the baseball diamond. The upper end at what the Mets can expect to receive fair value is $20 to $22 million AAV for four to five years. At this point, his market has not materialized as expected, so Alonso might be unlikely to receive numbers in that range. 

At What Contract Should Another Team Sign Pete Alonso?

The same basic principles apply to any other organization as they do the Mets, this includes the Los Angeles Angels as well as the Toronto Blue Jays, who are rumored to be interested. The same fair value deal of around $20 million AAV for four years would make sense for most teams without a long-term solution or investment at first base. The Blue Jays currently have Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who would be a free agent at the end of this upcoming season, could conceivably flip him across the diamond to third and play Alonso at first for this season. If they wind up resigning Guerrero, they could also switch one of them to DH somewhere down the road. The Los Angeles Angels, coming off a 63-win season, could use an extra bat and play Alonso at first or DH to help supplement their lineup.

Conclusion

Being a fan, I’d love to see Pete Alonso come back and continue to hit homers in Queens for years to come, however, if Mets fans want to see a sustainable winner, it is important not to enter into contracts that have a lower likelihood of providing value to the organization. The great thing about having an owner like Steve Cohen is that even if a bad contract is on the books, it does not completely wipe out future spending. Such as having Robinson Cano or even Justin Verlander on the books and still making moves to improve the team. So, if the Mets were a smaller market team, I wouldn’t advise taking a risk and paying Pete Alonso up to $100 million. However, the Mets are uniquely prepared to weather the storm if he doesn’t completely live up to the deal. As for Alonso, either he comes back to the Mets, or he goes elsewhere and gets a boatload of money. Those two things aren't mutually exclusive, but based on David Stearns’ track record, it appears that if Pete returns, it would have to be within reason. Regardless of what happens next, he was responsible for a lot of joy for all of our fans, and I’d personally be happy for him with whatever happens next.