The List of Potential NBA Champions According to Phil Jackson’s 40-20 Rule
According to legendary head coach Phil Jackson, his rule for finding out if a team is truly an elite contender is if they can achieve 40 wins in the regular season before surrendering 20 losses. There’s no doubting the Hall of Famer’s eye for championship-caliber teams, as his 11 rings coaching the Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers speak for themselves. History supports his claim as well. Out of the last 30 NBA champions, 27 have followed the metric. With the 40-20 rule applying to 90 percent of the last 30 winners, these are the four teams that history tells us could come home with the 2024 NBA title.
1. Boston Celtics
The Celtics have absolutely crushed the 40-20 rule, only being defeated 12 times by their 40th win. Boston is currently first in the Eastern Conference with a 47-12 record and is on a 10-game win streak after their win over the Dallas Mavericks. In addition, the Celtics are the only team on this list that is in the Eastern Conference. Boston has everything it takes to win a championship and has been knocking on the door for years now. With Vegas’ best odds to win the NBA Championship and no other team in the East under the 40-20 rule, the Celtics are all geared up to win the franchises’ 18th trophy.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves have made the playoffs each of the last two years but have been inside the play-in tournament and have not seen the second round in both appearances. Just four years ago, this was a Minnesota team that didn’t even reach 20 wins in the entire season. Now led by a pair of All-Stars and number one overall picks, Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, the Timberwolves hit the 40-win mark with only 17 losses on the season. They currently sit at the top spot in the Western Conference thanks to having the best defensive rating in the NBA and will aim for that to lead the way to the franchises’ first NBA Championship.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder
Perhaps the NBA’s best-positioned team for future success has already been deemed elite level by Phil Jackson’s metric. Oklahoma City has 36 total draft picks in the next five years, including 19 first-round selections. That has not deterred this young Thunder squad from being the best of the best currently, however. With an entire starting lineup of 25-year-olds or younger, the Thunder have quickly molded into a championship-caliber team. Led by MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City looks to become the youngest roster to ever win an NBA Championship.
4. Denver Nuggets
Last, but certainly not least, the reigning NBA Champions fit the bill to win once again. The Nuggets have an almost identical DNA to the team that won the title last year and have seemingly not missed a beat, going 40-19 in their first 59 games. Denver has just begun to get in full rhythm, starting off 6-0 after the All-Star break. With 2-time MVP Nikola Jokic as the centerpiece, the Nuggets come in as Vegas’ best odds in the Western Conference to go back-to-back.
