Three Winners and Losers From Week One Of The NFL Preseason: Quarterback Edition

Preseason football—what I’ll dub "smoke and mirrors" season—has finally returned after a year's hiatus. This weekend’s slate of games featured eight rookie quarterbacks and numerous journeymen, all vying for either a starting position or a spot on the 53-man roster. As the term "smoke and mirrors" implies, this period can be quite deceptive. Therefore, it is crucial to strike a balance between overreacting and under reacting, given that some players faced only second and third-string opponents, while others provided just a drive’s worth of evaluative footage. Based on the analysis of this weekend's preseason action, here are my three winners and three losers: quarterback edition. 

WINNER: Caleb Williams

In a limited first quarter of action, Caleb Williams flashed more than the ridiculous arm talent herald since he beat out Spencer Rattler as a true freshman at Oklahoma. The patience, poise, and pocket presence were as advertised, making for an efficient preseason debut. Chicago had its ears pinned back on a near-insurmountable third-and-12 on the first offensive possession of Williams' young career before the USC transfer delivered a dart directly at the stick for newly extended receiver DJ Moore. Williams methodically progressed through two to three full reads before delivering a well-placed pass in tight coverage to help sustain his inaugural drive. Additionally, he exhibited several deft decisions and throws, including a beautifully executed roped throw to Cole Kmet on the right sideline off a naked keeper and a successful scramble and conversion on a third-and-long. The first of these notable plays was particularly striking upon reviewing the All-22 footage, but his debut was nothing short of promising.

LOSER: Trey Lance 

Trey Lance, regarded as one of John Lynch’s most significant missteps after the 49ers traded three first-round picks to Miami for the third overall selection in the 2021 NFL Draft, further substantiated the decision to trade him to Dallas for a fourth-round pick. In his Cowboys preseason debut against the Los Angeles Rams, Lance completed 25 of 41 passes for 188 yards and added 44 rushing yards on six carries. Despite several promising drives, Lance failed to reach the end zone, resulting in missed opportunities and ultimately empty possessions, even against the Rams' second-string defense. While Lance’s performance was not entirely disastrous, it earned him a negative evaluation for being underwhelming against diminished competition amid ongoing quarterback controversy. With Dak Prescott’s future in Dallas uncertain, Lance is under intense scrutiny, with every move closely watched. To justify his selection as the No. 3 overall pick, Dallas will need to see significant progress in Lance’s development. He will have two more weeks of practice and high-crescendo preseason reps to prove his value, but his Week One performance was notably uninspiring.

WINNER: Bo Nix 

Bo Nix looked the part for most of his 36 pass attempts on Sunday. Stepping in for Jarrett Stidham during the Broncos' third offensive possession, Nix connected with Courtland Sutton for a wide-open 22-yard completion that set up a Will Lutz field goal in opposing territory. Overall, Nix completed 15 of 21 passes for a touchdown, posted a quarterback passer rating of 102.3, and orchestrated four scoring drives. He was one of three rookies to throw a touchdown pass in his debut, delivering a precise one-yard strike to sophomore receiver Marvin Mims on a crucial third-and-goal. Nix’s mastery of the Sean Payton system was evident, with his accuracy echoing his college tape, and his decision-making was exemplary. His position as the Broncos' Week One starter appears more secure as a result of this performance. Stidham’s two drives were marred by a Tim Patrick taunting penalty, which led to a punt, and a bobbled pass that resulted in an interception on the subsequent drive. Although not entirely Stidham’s fault, he was unable to effectively pioneer even a modest field goal attempt with most of the first-team starters present. Nix may have had the most ‘NFL ready’ college tape among draftees, with Sunday’s operation a testament to his command and grasp of offensive and defensive concepts. Nix was sharp. 

LOSER: Sam Darnold 

Sam Darnold, along with parts of the Vikings' first-team offense, was restricted to a single drive that ended in a turnover on downs following a questionable fourth-down conversion attempt. Darnold effectively moved the offense nearly the length of the field, completing four of eight passes for 59 yards, and secured a crucial third-and-10 conversion over the middle to sustain the drive. While Darnold did not deliver a standout performance, nor did he underperform to the extent that his Week One starting position is in jeopardy, some internal competition could be further heightened. Conversely, J.J. McCarthy, who made a typical rookie misfire on his third attempt through the air, rebounded exceptionally. According to various Minnesota beat writers, Head Coach Kevin O'Connell has maintained a consistent tone over the past four months, emphasizing the importance of prudent development for McCarthy: “We want to be smart about the (J.J. McCarthy’s) development and make sure that his training camp is absolutely going to plan.” Barring an extraordinary development, Darnold is expected to retain the Week One starting position. The waters remain timid; however, McCarthy’s progress on Saturday should complicate the Vikings' original season’s blueprint. 

WINNER: JJ McCarthy 

In contrast to Williams, J.J. McCarthy is undergoing a rigorous evaluation in a quarterback competition with Sam Darnold and received significantly more snaps. If McCarthy hadn’t already proven his mettle during Vikings training camp, his performance on Saturday should have certainly persuaded Minnesota brass. McCarthy displayed a precise yet methodical approach to distributing the football. Much like Williams’s impressive improvisation on third down, McCarthy skillfully evaded would-be tacklers to create opportunities for first downs. Despite a lapse where McCarthy threw an interception on his third passing attempt, he recovered nearly flawlessly for the remainder of his snaps. The standout moment of his debut was a perfectly placed touchdown pass to receiver Trishton Jackson on the left sideline. McCarthy's deep ball to Jackson traveled nearly 45 yards through the air while he was under pressure in a collapsing pocket. McCarthy’s debut should generate considerable excitement, and performances like this strongly bolster his claim for the Week One starting position.

LOSER: Justin Fields

Call a spade for a spade; Justin Fields' career to this point has been marked by organizational instability and innate shortcomings, neither of which should be overlooked. On Saturday, we saw a similarly striking resemblance where, when analyzed in isolation, the performance appeared deceptively efficient. Justin Fields took the field in the absence of Russell Wilson and completed five of six passes for 67 yards through the air and a total of 69 yards. Fields delivered an accurate 20-yard out route to Van Jefferson and capitalized on a Najee Harris slip screen for a notable gain. This evaluation is not about a "who’s who in the zoo" but one of Zach Frazier or Field’s bobbled a couple of snaps that were fortunately recovered by Pittsburgh. There were instances where the Ohio State product held the ball longer than usual, resulting in either drive-altering sacks or empty drive punts. In the words of a visibly frustrated Mike Tomlin during the press conference that followed Fields' debut against the Steelers: “Negated (Field’s two fumbles) a lot of good things.” Tomlin’s words perfectly encapsulate his career to the point: flashy splash plays sandwiched in between costly novice mistakes that fly under the radar. He’s a very exciting and polarizing force, but those continued mental errors could be costly in his training camp battle against Wilson.