Thursday’s College Basketball Best Bet
As the football season begins to wind down, for myself and many others, it’s time to shift our focus to basketball. On Thursday, we only have four matchups involving a ranked team, but after breaking them down, I found value in the total in one of them. The runner-up from last year, Purdue, travels to Minneapolis to take on Minnesota. This game shows some specific play-style statistics that should give us an edge against the market. Later in the week on Saturday, we have an incredible slate with four ranked vs. ranked matchups, including my Kentucky Wildcats taking on the Florida Gators. Be on the lookout for another best bet from me from that slate as well.
Both Minnesota and Purdue play at an extremely slow pace, ranking 304th or worse in Tempo and Offensive Length of Possession per KenPom. These teams also have had respectable defenses to back this, although this speaks much more to Purdue than it does Minnesota. Purdue currently has the ninth-highest Strength of Schedule, while Minnesota is down at 301st. Starting with a good base like this is key for any under, and to add to this, Purdue has scored quite differently on the road compared to at home. Looking at all road or neutral games this year, Purdue is only averaging 69 points per game, compared to 83.9 at home. While I don’t think they are in danger of losing this game due to pace and a foreign environment, I think scoring will come at a premium for them and should be less than the market projects.
Switching over to Minnesota, it’s pretty depressing looking at their remaining schedule on KenPom. The Golden Gophers, led by senior Dawson Garcia, are only projected to win one game the rest of the year. During that span, they are also not projected to score more than 68 points in any game, even the one win. They have struggled even more so, probably not shockingly, scoring against good teams. When playing teams this year inside the KenPom top-105, they have only managed to score an average of 61 points in those games, and one even went to overtime. Part of this is likely due to their inability to score threes and shoot free throws at anything close to an average rate. I think Minnesota upholds its end here, too, scoring less than the market projects.
Prediction
I like Purdue to win this game, and frankly, I don’t hate a bet on the spread against a Minnesota team that is fairly untested. My issue with taking that side over the total comes from what I laid out earlier. This game is only projected to be a six-point spread per KenPom, and in a lower-scoring game with a slow pace, this could get backdoored if Purdue lets them hang around. Due to this, I much prefer the under in hopefully a close conference game. The lines aren’t out yet, but I will take anything at 133 or better. As well, I will also be looking to get in on Purdue live if this falls to three or fewer.
