UFC 302: Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier, Predictions and Analysis
UFC 302 will commence on June 1st, 2024, in Newark, New Jersey. The main card is set to be the best of 2024 surpassing the UFC 301 card. The card will be headlined by Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier and Sean Strickland vs Paulo Costa. Although those two matchups are the most talked about, they aren't the only exciting fights on the card. The fight between Kevin Holland and Michal Oleksiejczuk will affect the Middleweight division rankings. A win for Holland could put him in the top ten in the division, moving him one step closer to a number one contender fight. With every big UFC card, there are millions of dollars being wagered, if you plan on betting here are my predictions.
Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos is the first fight of the main card. Brown is the betting favorite at -175 odds and for good reason. The Welterweight is fresh off a first-round knockout win and is currently on a two-fight win streak. Dos Santos hasn’t won a fight since June 3, 2023, and hasn’t won a fight by submission or knockout since August 31, 2019. Brown is taller, has a longer wingspan, and is younger than Dos Santos. In this fight, I agree with the sportsbooks that Brown will win.
Niko Price vs. Alex Morono
The next fight is Niko Price vs. Alex Morono. Morono is currently the betting favorite at -258 odds. The unranked Welterweight is 2-2 in his last four fights and hasn’t won by knockout since 2019. Price is 1-3 in his last four fights, two of them via knockout. Morono has shown in the past that he is hard to knock out and can easily go the distance with anyone. I predict the fight will go over 1.5 rounds and Morono will win by decision.
Kevin Holland vs. Michael Oleksiejczuk
Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk is a hard one to gauge. Holland is currently the -290 favorite, but I think the line is flawed. Oleksiejczuk is an excellent striker, with three knockout victories in his last five fights. Oleksiejczuk struggles with wrestling but that isn’t something Holland wants to do. Holland is also a striker but after his performance against Michael Page, it's hard to see why he is a -290 favorite. For my first upset pick of the main card, I will be choosing Oleksiejczuk at +235 odds over Holland.
Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa
Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa has huge implications for Strickland. Strickland is currently the number-one-ranked Middleweight but a loss to Costa would bring his losing streak two in a row, guaranteeing he would lose his number-one ranking. Although Strickland is the -270 odds favorite, I have Costa winning this fight. Strickland is an excellent striker but that is his only strength. Given Costa's ability to switch it up, I will be taking him to win this fight.
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier
Now let's talk about the main event, Islam vs. Dustin. Poirier is one of the most accomplished UFC fighters ever. It is well-known throughout the MMA community that this is his last title run. He has even said he's considering retirement whether he wins the belt or not. With all that said, Makhachev has won 13 consecutive fights and has dominant wins over all-time greats such as Alexander Volkanovski and Charles Oliveira. Makhachev is the pound-for-pound number one ranked fighter in the UFC and given he has no weaknesses I don’t see how he loses. Makhachev can shoot a takedown early and assert his dominant wrestling against Poirier. Makhachev can also exchange blows with Poirier like he did when he knocked out Volkanovski. Makhachev is a -675 favorite and honestly, I wouldn’t be mad if it was even higher. Makhachev will win this fight and make it look easy.
