UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady Preview
After a one-week break from fights, UFC is back at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Headlining the September 7th event is the number six Welterweight contender Gilbert “Durinho” Burns vs. the number eight Welterweight contender Sean Brady. This fight between Burns and Brady is really high stakes since they’re both close to the top five of the Welterweight division. Both men have suffered losses to the current Welterweight Champion Belal “Remember the Name” Muhammad, although a win on Saturday night can put either man closer to a title shot and a chance to avenge their loss to Belal Muhammad.
Gilbert Burns is a seasoned veteran with the UFC, having 22 previous fights with the promotion. Burns is coming back after a TKO loss to Jack Della Maddalena, and a win on Saturday night is critical for Burns since he has gone 3-3 in his last six fights. In front of Burns is Sean Brady, a Jiu-Jitsu fighter, who joined the UFC in late 2019. Sean Brady is coming off a submission win over former middleweight contender Kelvin Gastelum, Brady boasts a record of 16-1. A win over Burns will put him closer to title contention and make Sean Brady a name for all top fives to worry about.
Gilbert Burns is no stranger to firefights, he has six wins by KO/TKO due to his blitzing style and the power he possesses in his right hand. Gilbert is a third-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, He has nine wins by submission and is a three-time Jiu-Jitsu World Champion. Burns is coming in as an underdog against Brady in the oddsmaker’s eyes, as of right now on Fanduel he sits at a +146 to Brady’s -186. The key to success for Gilbert in this fight is to exploit Brady’s only loss, that loss was a TKO loss to Belal Muhammad. Belal is known for not having finishing power, if Belal could TKO Brady, Gilbert should have no problem hurting Brady. If Burns can hurt and keep pressure on Sean Brady while he’s hurt, he may very well get a win early in the fight. Another scenario for Gilbert is to use his world-class Jiu-Jitsu to hold down Brady, put him in uncomfortable positions, look for submissions, or beat Brady up on the ground to secure a decision win.
Saturday makes Sean Brady’s first UFC main event, one aspect we haven’t been able to see from Sean Brady is if he’s able to go through those five rounds, He has fought only once over three rounds. Sean Brady is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is the former Cage Warrior Welterweight Champion. Brady comes into this fight as a favorite due to his higher strike accuracy and higher takedown defense, age is also a factor going into this fight, Brady is 31 years old compared to the veteran Burn who is 38 years old. The keys to success for Brady are his pressure and higher takedown average, Gilbert's takedown defense is 50%. If Brady can pressure Burns and weather the early storm of Burns looping right hand, he should be able to take Burns down and keep pressure and control, while trying to defend the many submission attempts that Gilbert will be throwing at him.
Making a prediction of who wins this fight is quite difficult, there’s no clear indication of a finish. Even after losing his last two fights, Gilbert Burns is still a force to be reckoned with, his third-degree black belt in Jiu-Jitsu should give Brady problems even if Gilbert is on his back. Sean Brady is quicker than Gilbert and more active on the ground, although a submission win for Brady looks highly unlikely, Gilbert has never been submitted in his MMA career. The fight will very likely go to a decision, I’m really torn on who would win this fight but I’m going to tilt toward a Gilbert Burns win. I feel like with Burns' experience, he would be able to put more pressure in those later rounds.
