Western Conference Playoff Picture: What’s at Stake on Sunday

As the Western Conference heads into Sunday, seeds four through 10 remain unsettled, with teams still unsure of their playoff opponents. The biggest drama centers around the race for the fourth through sixth seeds, the final spots for automatic playoff qualification before the Play-In Tournament seeds. The Nuggets, Clippers, Warriors, Timberwolves, and Grizzlies are all in action on Sunday, but all eyes will be on the Clippers-Warriors matchup, which could be the most crucial game of the day. The Thunder, Rockets, and Lakers have already locked up the first three seeds, so expect them to be resting players on Sunday.

The Western Conference is chaotic, with the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers tied for fourth and the Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors tied for the sixth seed. The Nuggets and Timberwolves currently hold the tiebreakers, but everything could shift on Sunday, especially with the Clippers and Warriors, who are strengthening their playoff position, playing each other. Denver gets a favorable matchup against a Rockets team likely resting players, Minnesota takes on the 17-64 Utah Jazz, and the Grizzlies will play the Mavericks. That said, if the Nuggets and Timberwolves can take care of business, the fate of the West could ultimately come down to that of the Clippers vs. Warriors matchup.

If the Nuggets, Timberwolves, and Clippers all win on Sunday, the playoff picture will shape up like this:

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Play-In: Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks

However, if the Warriors beat the Clippers instead, the matchups will shift to:

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors

Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Play-In: Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks

Of course, those projections only hold if everything goes as expected in the Nuggets and Timberwolves games. If either of those teams slip up, the standings could get more complicated. For example, the Warriors can still sneak into the sixth seed even with a loss to the Clippers, but only if the Timberwolves also lose to the Jazz. Now, if both the Warriors and Timberwolves lose, and the Nuggets, Grizzlies, Thunder, Lakers, and Kings all win, it would shake out as the Nuggets getting the fourth seed, the Clippers getting the fifth seed, and the Warriors getting the sixth seed, with the Grizzlies and Timberwolves dropping into the Play-In as the seventh and eighth seeds. On the other hand, if the Warriors lose, but the Timberwolves, Nuggets, Grizzlies, Thunder, Lakers, and Kings all win, then the top six becomes the Nuggets getting the fourth seed, the Clippers getting the fifth seed, and the Timberwolves getting the sixth seed, pushing the Warriors and Grizzlies down to seventh and eighth. 

What comes next for the Clippers is simple: beat the Warriors, and they’re in the playoffs. Lose, and they risk dropping into the Play-In Tournament. Thanks to some unfavorable tiebreakers, L.A. needs to win its eighth straight game to secure a top-six spot. The Clippers and Nuggets share a 49-32 record and split their season series at two games apiece. Denver holds the edge for the fourth seed because of a better conference record. If the Clippers lose and the Nuggets and Timberwolves win, L.A. would fall to seventh, setting up a Play-In matchup with Memphis. In that scenario, the Timberwolves, Warriors, and Clippers would finish with identical records, but Minnesota would take the fifth seed thanks to a season sweep vs L.A., pushing Golden State to sixth and the Clippers to seventh.

The Western Conference saved its wildest time for the final day. With seeds four through 10 hanging in the balance, every game on Sunday carries weight, but none more than Clippers vs. Warriors. For L.A., it’s winning and you’re in. For Golden State, it’s a shot at redemption or a slide back into the Play-In. Add in potential upsets from teams like the Jazz or Mavericks, and the standings could flip in a matter of hours. The only guarantee after Sunday is that someone's path to the Finals is going to get a whole lot tougher than it is now.