What to Watch at the Upcoming Japanese Grand Prix
First of all, the biggest story has to be the Red Bull debut of Yuki Tsunoda. After the poor performance of Liam Lawson, Tsunoda finally got promoted to Red Bull after four years with the Junior Team AlphaTauri/VCARB. Last year, Tsunoda scored his first-ever home point at Suzuka, and this year, back at Suzuka but now with Red Bull, Tsunoda is looking confident—he said his target for the race will be a podium finish. As the driver who spent the longest time with the Red Bull Junior team, Tsunoda finally gets a better car to show his true speed, and his performance will serve as a great benchmark for comparing Lawson and Sergio Perez. The question for Red Bull remains: Is the problem with their second driver due to the drivers themselves, or is the car just too hard to drive?
Again? A Race like Australia?
The Japanese Grand Prix might have dry qualifying and a wet race—isn’t it just like Australia? According to the Suzuka weather report today, Friday’s weather is dry with a zero percent chance of rain, but in the afternoon, the wind might increase, with speeds reaching 30–40 km/h. This wind may present small challenges for drivers and engineers in finding the right car setups. On Saturday, the qualifying day, the chance of rain is 20%, but it is expected to remain dry with only slight wind. Finally, on Sunday—the race day—the chance of rain is 80%! Although the rain will most likely fall in the morning, who knows what the weather will be like during the afternoon race? If conditions turn into a mix of dry and wet, there might be another chaotic race waiting for us. There will also be some setup gambles for the teams: Should they compromise with the possible rain or stake everything on a dry race?
The Comeback of Ferrari?
Although it’s still early in the season, it’s already time to say that Ferrari is in a dangerous situation—the team is on a cliff. In hopes of better performance in China, Ferrari suffered an astonishing double DSQ; winning the sprint race in Shanghai might be the only comfort for the Tifosi. With poor P8 and P10 finishes in Australia, Ferrari only scored seventeen points in two races—Williams is even ahead of them in the constructors’ standings. This is their worst start since 2009. Ferrari needs to be thankful there is a sprint race in China because, without it, we might see Ferrari score only five points in two races. Now, at the third race in Japan after a one-week gap, Ferrari must better understand their SF-25, unlock more pace, and give more support to Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton—find the right setup, adjust the chassis height, and ensure the car meets the minimum 800kg weight; otherwise, it will be another miserable race for the Tifosi.
The Mid-Field Combat
The performance of the midfield teams this season is crazy. In Australia, the season opener saw Alex Albon storming to an amazing P5, followed by Lance Stroll with a P6 and Nico Hülkenberg with a P7 in the slow Sauber; we all thought it was just due to the chaotic wet conditions, but it is not. The next week in China, after the DSQ of both Ferrari and Pierre Gasly, Esteban Ocon in the Haas achieved a shocking P5, Albon continued his great performance with a P7, Oliver Bearman moved up to P8 with an overtaking show, Lance Stroll finished P9 with amazing tire management, and Carlos Sainz scored his first point at Williams with a P10. In China, the midfielders shined; all teams besides Alpine scored, and Williams, Haas, and Aston Martin already reached double-digit points. This week in Japan, with a potential wet race, we can expect intense wheel-to-wheel combat among these midfielders. Also, there is one man everyone is curious about—Liam Lawson, returning to that VCARB.
