Who’s the Favorite to Win the 2025 Phillips 66 Big 12 Women’s Championship?
Earlier today, TCU made history by advancing to the Big 12 Women’s Championship for the first time. They triumphed over West Virginia with a score of 71-65, solidifying the first 30-win season in the school’s history. Hailey Van Lith led the team with 19 points, Sedona Prince achieved a double-double with 18 points and 16 rebounds, and Madison Conner contributed 16 points. Baylor took down Oklahoma State later in the night, headlined by Aaronette Vonleh with 37 points and nine rebounds. Sarah Andrews recorded a double-double with 11 points and 11 assists, while Jada Walker added 12 points and five assists. With both teams now set to clash in the Big 12 Championship Game, the stage is set for one of the most significant showdowns to date. TCU’s historic run is on the line. Baylor’s prestigious title record makes this game unmissable. High stakes and intense competition are imminent as these two teams vie for the 2025 Phillips 66 Big 12 Women’s Championship.
Top Contenders
The TCU Horned Frogs and the Baylor Bears will face off in the championship tomorrow evening. These two teams previously met last Sunday, when TCU won 51-48. Since the tournament's launch in 1997, Baylor stands out as the most successful team. They have made 27 appearances and hold an outstanding 11 titles. While six other schools have also appeared 27 times, none have matched Baylor's title count. The next closest team is Oklahoma with four titles. TCU, on the other hand, has the fewest appearances in the Big 12 and has yet to win a championship. Baylor’s last championship appearance was in 2022, one year after their victory in 2021.
TCU is the top-ranked team in the conference, boasting an overall record of 29-3 and a conference record of 16-2. The Bears, on the other hand, have an overall record of 26-6 and a conference record of 15-3. Over their last five games, the Horned Frogs have averaged 70.6 points. Throughout the season, TCU has maintained a 47.5% field goal percentage, a 37.7% three-point percentage, and a 74.1% free throw percentage. TCU also ranks fifth in the nation in blocks. Baylor leads both teams in steals. They have averaged 69.4 points in their last five games. Baylor has a 45.1% field goal percentage, a 35% three-point percentage, and a 66.1% free throw percentage. Compared to the Horned Frogs, Baylor falls behind in free throws, three-pointers, and field goals.
The Big Three
Hailey Van Lith is the only college basketball player who represented Team USA at the 2024 Paris Olympics, where she won a bronze medal in three-on-three basketball. She has earned the titles of Big 12 Newcomer of the Year and Big 12 Player of the Year and is on the Naismith Player of the Year Watch List. Van Lith is also one of the 10 finalists for the Nancy Lieberman Point Guard of the Year Award and has been named to the Big 12 First Team. She is currently averaging 17.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game. Sedona Prince is one of the five finalists for the Lisa Leslie Center of the Year Award and has been named to the Big 12 Defensive First Team. She is fourth in blocks across the country. Prince is averaging 17.6 points, 9.3 rebounds, and has a field goal percentage of 58.3%. Madison Conner has been named to the Big 12 First Team and is a finalist for the Ann Meyers-Drysdale Award, which recognizes the nation's top shooting guard. She ranks second in the nation in three-pointers made. Conner is currently averaging 14.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, and four assists per game. Additionally, both Van Lith and Prince are Wooden Award candidates.
Aaronette Vonleh, Sarah Andrews, and Jada Walker are the trio to watch for Baylor. Vonleh, who is on the Lisa Leslie Award Preseason Watch List, has earned a spot on the 2024-2025 All-Big 12 Second Team. She is averaging 13.8 points and 5.5 rebounds. Vonleh has the highest field goal percentage on the team. She shoots at 58.1%. Andrews also made the 2024-2025 All-Big 12 Second Team. She is on both the Naismith Trophy Preseason Watch List and the Preseason Wooden Award Watch List. Andrews is averaging 10.8 points and 4.9 assists. Walker, a former SEC All-Freshman, received an All-Big 12 Honorable Mention. She is averaging 11.2 points. Walker leads Baylor in assists and steals, with 5.6 and 1.6 respectively.
The Front-Runner
The question that remains is: which team holds the edge? The Horned Frogs have been breaking records and making history all season. Baylor, on the other hand, has more Big 12 title experience and a proven track record under their belt. TCU boasts a roster with more players who have extensive college basketball experience. This year, Baylor has faced a TCU team like never before. The duo of Sedona Prince and Hailey Van Lith is challenging to stop, especially in the pick-and-roll. Sharpshooters like Madison Conner and other players, such as Taylor Bigby and Agnes Emma-Nnopu, are difficult to contain once they get hot. Even if Baylor manages to slow down Prince, they will still have to contend with Deasia Merrill in the paint. Without their leading scorer and rebounder Darianna Littlepage-Buggs, Baylor has a gap in both their offense and defense. During their game against Oklahoma State, center Aaronette Vonleh carried the team, finishing with 29 points. She was the only player on her team to score more than 10 points.
Both teams locking down on defense and pressuring their opponents will be key. Baylor has 8.6 steals and 4.8 blocks per game compared to TCU’s 6.1 steals and 5.9 blocks per game. Baylor trails slightly in turnovers but has been out-rebounding the Horned Frogs. In their last game against West Virginia, TCU excelled at rebounding and creating second-chance opportunities. If this trend continues into tomorrow’s matchup, it will spell trouble for Baylor. Additionally, Baylor should not allow TCU to head to the free throw line. The Horned Frogs are shooting 74.1% in free throws, with Hailey Van Lith at 80% and Madison Conner at 84.5%. For Baylor, guard Waiata Jennings comes off the bench with a perfect 100% free throw percentage, though she has only attempted four. The next best free throw shooters for Baylor are Madison Bartley at 76.5% and Yaya Felder at 73.5%. Fouls can give away points, but fouling the Horned Frogs is risky. Smart defensive plays will benefit Baylor in the long run.
Baylor has a size disadvantage. There is nearly no one in the Big 12 who can go up against Sedona Prince. Whoever guards her will have to ensure she has absolutely no room to maneuver. The Bears have a center of their own that TCU needs to look out for: Aaronette Vonleh. They like to feed her the ball in the paint, which has resulted in easy points for Baylor. They say shooters shoot, and I can assure you that’s exactly what they do. Hailey Van Lith is a lethal shooter. Shutting her down, especially from three-point range, would significantly impact TCU’s total. However, it’s worth mentioning that once one shooter is shut down on TCU, others step up in their place. So, Baylor will have their hands full. Since Darianna Littlepage-Buggs will not be playing, TCU will have to identify which guards will be stepping up in her place. I predict that Jada Walker and Sarah Andrews will be difference makers, alongside Yaya Felder. They did not perform the best in their match tonight against Oklahoma State. Between their last two games against TCU, all three scored in double-digits at least once. Tomorrow is what truly matters. If Baylor can find their rhythm early, they will be difficult to overcome.
Aggression and the will to win will play a huge role in tomorrow’s game. So, which team holds the edge? In my opinion, TCU has the best chance of winning the 2025 Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship. This time, the odds are in their favor, although the battle against Baylor will be hard-fought. I expect the game to be as tightly contested as it has been previously, even without Darianna Littlepage-Buggs on the court. The Horned Frogs are a train that cannot be stopped. TCU and Baylor have faced each other twice this season, with the Horned Frogs winning both times. Their relentlessness and teamwork make the team truly special. The leadership by veterans on the roster and the coaching by Mark Campbell have brought them to this very point. Baylor will put up a strong fight, but the Horned Frogs' momentum and determination have already secured them a regular season title, and they have the potential to win another. Tomorrow, everything will come down to who wants it more and executes their game plan effectively.
How To Watch
The matchup between Baylor and TCU kicks off at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. ESPN will handle the broadcast live from the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City. The Horned Frogs enter the game as the eighth-ranked team in the country. The Bears hold the 17th-ranked position. The results of the game will have significant implications for both teams' standings, not only in the Big 12 but also in the NCAA Tournament. The results of the game will have significant implications for both teams' standings, not only in the Big 12 but also in the NCAA Tournament. All eyes will be on Kansas City to see if TCU can make history again or if Baylor will reclaim the throne.
