Why the Hemisphere Usually Determines World Cup Champions
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be played in three countries. This is a historical first. The United States, Mexico, and Canada will share the honors of co-hosting the most popular and prestigious tournament in soccer. The geography of the World Cup has more often than not determined its champion. The hemisphere where the World Cup has been held usually determines a short list of who will be its champion. It's been proven that nations from one sector of the world will not win in the home of another or a neutral part of the world, such as the Middle East. The majority of World Cups have been held in Europe or South America, with other zones in the FIFA membership umbrella only recently being included for hosting rights.
The time when the World Cup was first contested, starting in 1930 to 1966, was a time when only Europe and South America were the predominant regions of world soccer and the only areas that hosted the tournament. In fact, as of 2024, no other country outside of these zones has ever won the coveted trophy. If you add the World Cups held in Mexico and the United States, Europe, and South America have only raised the World Cup once each in the other hemisphere. In all other sites outside South America, Europe has only laid claim to the World Cup once in six tries, while South America has won all but one of the World Cups held outside Europe or South America.
Hosting the World Cup has been beneficial to a total of six countries. Argentina, Germany, Italy, France, Uruguay, and England have all used their home field to win the World Cup. An interesting fact is that all multiple-time champions have at one time won one of those trophies at home. The sole exception has been the country which holds the distinction of winning the most World Cups with five. They are also the only repeat champion to have not won on their home ground, having failed in the 1950 World Cup Final against Uruguay and in a 2014 Semifinal humiliation at the hands of Germany, which opened the door to the only European team to win in the Western Hemisphere. However, Brazil holds the distinction of being not only the sole South American team but also the only country to win the Mundial in Europe.
Europe has fully benefited from home cooking, winning 10 of the 11 World Cups held on European soil. It takes a special team that can win in any condition or locale. Germany has proven to be tournament-tough, winning four World Cups and finishing as a finalist three additional times. Germany finally broke through for Europe when they defeated host Brazil and Lionel Messi’s Argentina to win it all in 2014. When it comes to outside Europe and South America, Spain has been the sole winner, capturing the World Cup in South Africa in 2010.
Brazil has proven to be the exception. They have won the World Cup in five different countries. They held the World Cup in the United States, Japan, Korea, Chile, and for the only time on European ground, Sweden in 1958, led by the legendary Pele. The other South American power with three World Cup titles. Their first, in 1978, led by captain Daniel Passarella, won at home. In 1986, Diego Maradona won it in Mexico, while Lionel Messi broke through in 2022 in Qatar. In the two major sections of Europe and South America, Europe holds a 13-10 advantage in World Cup wins.
This edge disappears when you look at all World Cups held outside of Europe or South America. This is the closest FIFA has come to neutral sites. Mexico has hosted two World Cups, with Brazil in 1970 and Argentina winning in 1986. In Japan and Korea, it was Brazil in 2002, and in Qatar in 2022, Argentina currently holds the crown. The last time the United States held the World Cup was back in 1994; Brazil won the honors. The World Cup Final in 2026 will be held at MetLife Stadium in New York City. If past precedent holds, it appears that Brazil or Argentina will be the favorites to win it this time around. After all, it's in the Western Hemisphere this time.
