Why Washington Can Command a Playoff Upset
Despite finishing the season two games better than the Buccaneers, the Washington Commanders remain underdogs in their Wild Card matchup on Sunday night. Although the Commanders hold the better record, Tampa Bay will host the game as winners of the NFC South due to the NFL playoff seeding, giving division winners a higher seed regardless of record. In their only head-to-head matchup of the season, the Buccaneers were able to get the better of Washington. However, the Commanders have grown so much since their Week One loss in Tampa Bay. With five straight wins to close out the regular season and earn the sixth seed, the Commanders are in a great position to pull off a first-round upset.
Not only do the Commanders have a better record than the Buccaneers, but they also play in a much tougher division. At 10-7, the Buccaneers are tied for the worst record of all 14 playoff teams. This is especially concerning considering that Tampa had the pleasure of playing in the only NFC Division that saw three teams finish with records below .500, those being the Saints and Panthers, both at 5-12, and the Atlanta Falcons, who finished with an 8-9 record. Out of the Buccaneers’ seven losses, four of them came against teams that did not make their way to the postseason. Losing to the 49ers, Cowboys, and Atlanta Falcons twice. On the flip side of this, only one of the Commanders’ five losses came against non-playoff teams, losing to the Cowboys in Week 12.
Most importantly for the Commanders, rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels now has 17 more games of experience since the two teams last met. Going into Sunday night’s matchup, expect Daniels to play much better in this matchup than he did in the first game of his NFL career. Although Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers' passing game has been great since the return of Mike Evans, the Buccaneers will still be missing star receiver Chris Godwin, who played a big part in their victory against Washington earlier in the season, catching eight passes for 83 yards and a touchdown. This is set to be a high-scoring matchup as the Buccaneers rank fourth in points per game, while Washington ranks fifth, trailing Tampa Bay by a point. Both of these teams give up a fair amount of points as well, ranking 16th and 18th in points allowed per game, which is a difference of .4 points per game between the two.
In this matchup, expect the offensive play to determine the outcome of the game. The Buccaneers will have a much more balanced attack, passing the ball frequently and running the ball with Bucky Irving, while the Commanders will rely heavily on their running game. Washington finished the 2024 season running the ball 47.7 percent of the time, which ranked sixth among all NFL teams. Anticipate quarterback Jayden Daniels to take off out of the backfield a lot, as well as the running back tandem of Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler. Although this matchup could go either way, it looks as though the Commanders will have the best chance of pulling off a first-round upset in comparison to other low-seeded playoff teams.
