Are the Dolphins Saved or Doomed After Signing Tua to a New Contract Extension?
In breaking NFL offseason news, the Miami Dolphins have locked up their franchise quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa to a new four-year contract extension, worth up to $212.4 million, with $167.1 million guaranteed. This comes as a surprise to many as the Dolphins have been on the fence about signing him to a long-term deal for a variety of reasons. With other massive contract signings happening around the league, including Trevor Lawrence, who got $55 million annually on his new deal, the evaluation of this new contract isn’t surprising as Tua was expected to get about the same number as Lawrence. What is surprising though is that the Dolphins signed him to a deal this year and that his new deal comes with over 75% of it guaranteed. Therefore, let’s look at the two opposing views on the effects of this new deal on Tua and the Dolphins’ future.
Why the Dolphins Might Be Saved?
The Dolphins are going into the next few seasons with some of the most dynamic pieces in the entire NFL. Retaining the signal caller and leader of the offense allows the Dolphins to keep this high-flying offense on pace. Having stability at the quarterback position heading into this year will allow the team to operate without drama and uncertainty heading into next offseason regardless of the result of this season. Tua is comfortable with head coach Mike McDaniel and the heavy-motion offensive style the Dolphins play with which could have been a difficult transition if they had brought in a new quarterback to lead the team. Last season, with Tua at the helm, the Dolphins were able to put up 4,624 passing yards which was the most in the league while throwing 29 touchdowns on top of that. When an offense is humming this efficiently why break up the band? With pieces like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, and De’Von Achane, look for this offense to continue putting up video-game-like numbers as they try to knock off the Chiefs as the top contender in the AFC.
Why the Dolphins Might Be Doomed?
There are several aspects of this deal that are heavily concerning for the Dolphins' future. Firstly, Tua has struggled with injuries as an undersized quarterback ever since he was in college at Alabama. Giving Tua a mostly guaranteed contract is shocking as he could easily suffer another major injury over the next few years. Additionally, even with this offense looking flashy throughout the past few years, they still haven’t won any meaningful games against good opponents during the regular season or anything in the playoffs. The Dolphins haven’t won a playoff game since 2000, and this move might not actually put them any closer to getting over that hump. The Dolphins could’ve franchise tagged Tua next season for around $43 million which would have saved them money in the short-term and could give both sides a chance to further evaluate if this was actually a formula to winning anything meaningful. The Dolphins were unsure going into this offseason on whether Tua was their guy because almost everyone in the NFL agrees that the weapons that the Dolphins have are more important and valuable to the offense’s success than Tua’s play at quarterback. Regardless, with Tua’s and Waddle’s new deal this offseason, the Dolphins will now be paying out around $113 million annually to three offensive players for the foreseeable future. With the NFL salary cap currently around $255 million per team, the Dolphins put themselves in a really tough spot to pay their offensive line or anyone on their defense moving forward. The Dolphins may be able to put up 30 points a game with their exciting offense, but unless the Dolphins draft exceptionally well on the defensive side of the ball, they will ultimately lose because they won’t be able to stop an opposing team’s offense.
The Most Likely Outcome
The Dolphins will likely end up somewhere in between these two opposing points of view. In the regular season, the Dolphins will absolutely crush teams with their offensive firepower in warm weather games, but as playoff time approaches and the Dolphins have to go on the road to the play in freezing temperatures, they will struggle on both sides of the ball. I don’t think this move allows the Dolphins a chance to go and win a Super Bowl over the next few years which should really be the primary goal of an NFL franchise. With so few quarterbacks in the league that have the abilities necessary to go and win a Super Bowl, you shouldn’t pay big money to a quarterback that at the end of the day, you know can’t get that done for your team. This is why it is crucial when building a team to try and win while your quarterback is either on a rookie contract or on the cheap while the rest of the team is full of dominant players. Teams get more value from the other dominant game-changing players on their roster than they do from a slightly above-average quarterback making big money. Unless your quarterback is an absolute game changer, like Patrick Mahomes, then it is better to have a cheap mid-level quarterback, like Brock Purdy, with an amazing supporting cast around them. This is why both the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers have been to the Super Bowl in recent years while the Miami Dolphins haven’t won a playoff game since the beginning of the millennium.
