Have Play-Callers Become Less Valuable in the NFL?
Just a few years ago, having a genius play-caller on your coaching staff was as crucial as having an all-pro quarterback and almost as rare. If a play-caller had a couple of great seasons, he was snatched up to be a head coach with a massive deal and the hopes that he could revitalize a previously stagnant offense. In some cases, it has worked wonders. Of course, Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, and Mike McDaniel have all turned into household names with their great offenses. These coaches all come from the same tree and, as a result, have devalued the play-caller.
It is essential to note that not every play-caller who steps into a head coaching role does well. See Matt Nagy, Josh McDaniels, Adam Gase, or Nate Hackett, just to name a few. Mike Shanahan’s tree has produced some of the greatest offensive minds we’ve ever seen. The tree hasn’t dried up either. Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan in particular keep churching out young, innovative coaches. It’s not like they all do the same thing well either. All of them have been able to adapt and execute their style very well.
The Mike Shanahan tree has nine head coaches. One coaching tree is responsible for more than a third of the head coaches in the NFL. If you look one step further, 11 offensive coordinators are calling plays for their team. This means that 21 of the 32 teams in the league are having plays called by this coaching tree. When we look at Andy Reid, probably the most creative coach of all time when it comes to play design, both of his most recent offensive coordinators have had either a head coaching or co-head coaching gig. Unlike the success stories already mentioned, both quickly wore out their welcome.
Teams have begun to adjust their expectations regarding offensive play-callers. A head coach who is a genius play-caller but a terrible leader of men will ultimately lead a team nowhere. There is a reason that the Lions have been more than happy to stick with Dan Campbell, that the Seahawks stuck with Pete Carroll, and that the Texans love Demeco Ryans. They are all great leaders of men, and they have all had spectacular offensive coordinators to guide their offense.
With the sheer number of great play-callers coming from the Shanahan tree, teams no longer need to take a risk and spend an absurd amount of money just to get a play-caller in their building. They don’t need to fire their head coach at all. They can do what the Bears have done. They like their head coach, but their offense was stagnant. So, they fired Luke Getsy and hired Shane Waldron. Getsy and Waldron are both members of the Shanahan tree, and the Bears are able to swap one out for the other in hopes of a coach that better fits their vision. Not every coach from the tree is going to be amazing or revolutionary. The fact is that there are simply so many coaches coming out of these systems that the market is almost over-saturated.
