How Buffalo Will End San Francisco’s Miserable Season
The AFC East front-running Buffalo Bills welcome the 2023 NFC champion San Francisco 49ers to town for a Sunday matchup. In what can only be described as a disappointing season, given the expectations, for the 49ers, they will look to salvage their playoff hopes in Orchard Park with a victory. Buffalo is fresh off their win over the previously undefeated Kansas City Chiefs, so the team is more than hot. Combined with quarterback Brock Purdy’s injury status unknown, the Bills should be able to walk out of Week 13 with their tenth win of the year.
Along with the momentum from their win over the reigning NFL Champions, quarterback Josh Allen enters the game riding high on one of his best seasons as a professional. With just five interceptions on the year, Allen is on pace to record his career low in the stat with the second-lowest occurring in 2019 with just nine picks thrown. While the superstar quarterback has not thrown nearly as many touchdowns as in years past, he has not had to do so. Allen’s average depth of target is the lowest in his seven seasons while his touchdown percentage is right on average for his career.
The main reason why Allen does not have to put the team on his back snap after snap is that his rushing attack dominates against stacked boxes. This fact will put the 49ers’ defense between a rock and Allen’s ability to win a game on any given snap. Overall, Buffalo’s run game ranks third in expected points added per play, meaning the defense must first stop the run before even addressing the best player on the field. To make matters worse for San Francisco, the 49ers struggle against the deep ball with the seventh-lowest EPA per play against throws over 20 yards.
The worst news for San Francisco is that their quarterback is still unknown for their Week 13 game in Buffalo. Purdy has proven to be a massive addition to this offense since earning the first-string reps two seasons ago. The San Francisco passing attack drops .82 expected points per dropback without the Iowa State product, meaning that if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive, Purdy is going to have to suit up. With all the weapons they have on the field, the one who might not play will likely make the difference.