Is it Possible for Aaron Judge to Break the MLB Home Run Record?
On Wednesday, Yankees slugger Aaron Judge became the quickest player in MLB history to reach 300 home runs. It took the superstar just 955 games to reach that mark, breaking Hall of Famer Ralph Kiner’s record of 1,087 games. Judge is in the midst of a historic season, batting .333 with 43 home runs, 110 RBI, and an unbelievable 1.174 OPS. This gives Judge a 224 OPS+, meaning he is 124 percent better than the league average hitter, which needless to say leads the MLB. The majority of these outlandish stats come after his first career ejection in May. Now, Barry Bonds’ record of 752 home runs has long been looked at as one of the most unbreakable records in sports. However, if Judge stays at this crazy pace, he may have a chance to do it. Let’s take a look and see if this is a real possibility.
Reaching number 300 in year nine, it may seem that Judge hits roughly 33 home runs per season. However, his per-162 mark says differently. His 162-game average is actually an absurd 51 home runs. Judge spends a solid amount of time injured, as he missed substantial time in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2023. If Judge wants to even have a shot at breaking the home run record, a massive part of it is him staying on the field. He actually averages more hun runs per 162 games than Bonds did, with 41.
So, how many home runs per season would he have to hit to break the record? Judge would have to hit 462 more to tie, and 463 to actually break the record. Now, that’s obviously a boatload of homers, but not impossible for Judge. Judge hits a home run every 3.18 games compared with 3.91 from Bonds. That might not seem like a big difference, but it really can be down the stretch. Judge is under contract until 2032 when he will be 40 years old, so it could be fair to assume he will retire after that.
Judge is currently on pace to finish this season with 57 home runs, so for this scenario, let’s say that’s the number he finishes with this season. That puts him at 315 career home runs and 447 away from the record. If he stays on par with his career 162-game average, Judge would hit 357 more home runs throughout his contract, giving him 672 career home runs, exactly 100 away from tying the record. If Judge does this, he would presumably play another couple of years chasing the record. Let’s say he plays three more years, with an average of 34 home runs a season, he would break the record with 764 home runs.
Now, obviously, this is all hypothetical. Yet, when putting Judge’s historic pace into perspective, it doesn’t seem to be impossible. There are two things that are going to come into play: injuries and age. We already stated that he does have a knack for being banged up. Similarly, it’s going to be hard for him to keep up this pace with age. While it’s going to be a long hill for Judge to climb, if everything goes in his favor, Judge really might just break the home run record.
