Minnesota’s Quarterback Dilemma: Analyzing the Vikings Options for the Future
The Minnesota Vikings had their 14-3 regular season unceremoniously ended by the Los Angeles Rams in the final game of Super Wild Card Weekend. Sam Darnold surprised the whole league by rejuvenating his career in Minnesota. After longtime quarterback Kirk Cousins left in free agency and it was followed up by top-10 draft pick J.J. McCarthy tearing his meniscus in August, the Vikings were predicted to be a bottom-five team in 2024. Not only did Darnold bring this team to a playoff berth, but he came one game away from clinching the best record in the NFC. The Vikings’ management now has a very important decision to make: retain Darnold as the starter or roll with McCarthy?
History Could Repeat Itself in Minnesota
The only season where the Vikings finished with a better win percentage was in 1998 when they became the third team in NFL history to finish 15-1, and the first 15-win team to not win the Super Bowl. They at least got to the NFC Championship back then, but had a multitude of decisions to make regarding Randall Cunningham, the then 35-year-old quarterback who led them to their exceptional record. In 1999, Minnesota drafted Daunte Culpepper with the 11th-overall-pick, but not before signing Cunningham to a five-year contract extension worth $28 million over five years. However, neither Cunningham nor Culpepper started a majority of games that year as journeyman Jeff George stepped in and led the team to the playoffs as a declining Cunningham was on his way out. By 2000, Cunningham was released and Culpepper took over the starting role which threw a wrench into the contract extension that was handed out just two years prior. This seems familiar to the current Vikings as Darnold, while not quite at the ripe old age of 35, has brought this team to new heights while McCarthy is the young gun waiting in the wings just as Culpepper was.
Option A: Sign Darnold to a Long-Term Deal, Make McCarthy Wait
Since the Vikings realistically had no idea that Darnold would start 17 games this season, he was only signed for one year at just $10 million. The Vikings could show their confidence in the soon-to-be 28-year-old quarterback by signing him to a long-term extension, much like the Falcons did with Cousins before drafting Michael Penix Jr. By doing that, Minnesota would be appeasing the veteran signal-caller while giving the younger one more time to develop. That would come as a gamble since the Vikings would be relying on this past season from Darnold to not be a flash in the pan, but the start of a long and prosperous tenure in Minnesota. Also, this could potentially lead to the team trading McCarthy as he was slated to be the starter before the season and wouldn’t want to be holding a clipboard for very long.
Option B: Let Darnold Walk, Let McCarthy Loose
Giving McCarthy the keys to the franchise is the next option, and the most likely one, according to NFL Insider Jordan Schultz. "I would say most likely, he's played his final game in Minnesota," Schultz said. "I have a hard time seeing Darnold back in Minnesota… someone told me as the season was getting going that there is no question that J.J. McCarthy is the guy." After a very underwhelming two final games, Darnold’s reputation soured due to his failures in must-win games. His contract situation puts them between a rock and a hard place, too, as his market value is projected to net him more than $30 million per year. If they’re not willing to pay him that much, then the best bet is to let McCarthy take the reins. The ex-Michigan Wolverine would regain his starting spot and give the team more cap space to improve the team around him.
Option C: Give Darnold a Short-Term Deal, Let McCarthy Sit Until He’s Ready
Giving Darnold the franchise tag is unlikely since it’s projected to be $41.3 million, according to Over the Cap. However, if the Vikings could convince him to stay in Minnesota for around $30-35 million for one to two years, then that could be the best of both worlds. Nowadays, young quarterbacks are frequently flung into the starting role right away without much time to learn. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, and Patrick Mahomes are all great quarterbacks who didn’t play in their first season and McCarthy might serve well to go down that same path. Though he’s already missed out on one season, that was due to injury; he wasn’t on the practice field and only just returned to on-field training this past Thursday. It also gives McCarthy the chance to step up and prove himself if it does turn out that Darnold was a one-year wonder. If not, Darnold could prove that he’s a franchise quarterback by putting together another elite season which would again raise his market value after the remaining seasons in Minnesota.
