North Carolina vs. Notre Dame Best Bet

North Carolina is coming off a loss at Louisville to start the new year and will continue on the road when they take on Notre Dame this Saturday. Notre Dame also lost on the road in their last game to Georgia Tech, so you can imagine both squads will be eager to bounce back in this one. While neither of them has great records this year, North Carolina is still the much better team. The spread has not been released yet, KenPom has this game projected 82-78, which gives us a solid starting point.

North Carolina on Offense

On offense, North Carolina has a fast-paced offense that has been on fire, ranking 25th per KenPom. This comes despite having faced the sixth toughest schedule this season and being one of the shorter teams in the nation. The areas on offense where this team has struggled have been offensive rebounding and their three-point percentage. North Carolina, however, doesn’t rely on the three much, ranking 300th in percentage of points from behind the arc. I also like North Carolina’s coaching advantage with Hubert Davis over Notre Dame’s Micah Shrewsberry, for what it’s worth.

On defense, Notre Dame has done well defending field goals, specifically the three, which shouldn't affect this game too much due to a lower percentage of shots being taken. Where North Carolina may be in trouble is Notre Dame’s ability to limit offensive rebounds and not give their opponent many free throws. If North Carolina has an off-shooting night, they may be in for a rough one without the extra chances. However, this is mostly negated to me by their inability to create turnovers, which the Irish currently rank 327th in the country. Overall, I make this a win for North Carolina’s offense in this matchup.

Notre Dame on Offense

When Notre Dame has the ball, they have a balanced, slow attack with a relatively tall squad, including Kebba Njie. This year, they have done well taking care of the ball and in most shooting percentage metrics. This is impressive but not as remarkable as North Carolina due to the strength of schedule disparity. Notre Dame also has struggled to get to the free throw line, an area North Carolina’s defense has excelled in.

North Carolina has had an average defense this year, but again, with the sixth toughest strength of schedule, I think they should be able to handle Notre Dame’s offense. Other than also lacking in creating turnovers, the only other area that worries me here is the height disparity. North Carolina is one of the shortest teams in the country, and they are going to have to defend a pretty tall team. Even with that said, I still will take North Carolina on this side of the ball as well.

Prediction

Even though they will be favorites on the road, I still really like North Carolina in this matchup. With KenPom having them as a four-point favorite, I would be willing to bet them as anything at five or lower. North Carolina has a better unit on both sides of the ball, coaching, and a tougher schedule with better wins. On the year, North Carolina has beaten two teams ranked 31st or higher on KenPom. Notre Dame’s best win is Georgetown, ranked 66th, in the third game of the season. Let’s go Tarheels.