Ohio State vs. Oregon: Which Team to Back in the Rematch?
In a rematch from earlier this year, Ohio State and Oregon face off in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinal, which also happens to be the Rose Bowl. These two teams faced each other in the Rose Bowl back in 2010, with Ohio State leaving victorious with a 26-17 win. Ohio State wasn’t able to get the job done during the regular season this year, however. The previous matchup was back and forth all game and ended with poor clock management by Ohio State and an expired clock after a Will Howard run. I think we have another great game on our hands here, but potentially a different outcome. The spread for this game currently has Ohio State favored by two and a half points with a total of 55.5.
Ohio State
In the first matchup this year, Ohio State had an 82% post-game win expectancy per CollegeFootballData. This was mainly due to a noticeable advantage in PPA and Success Rate, along with doing a great job finishing drives with touchdowns instead of field goals. As mentioned, there is a real chance Ohio State had a chance for a game-winning field goal in the first matchup if not for poor clock management on their side. Aside from that mistake at the end, though, Will Howard played very well in this game, as did Oregon’s quarterback, Dillon Gabriel. Both quarterbacks ended the first meeting with zero turnover-worthy plays and over 320 passing yards, per PFF.
The main concern with Howard in this meeting is driven by their offensive line. Ohio State will once again be missing two key starters who played at least some in the first meeting, center Seth McLaughlin and left tackle Josh Simmons. While he didn’t have any turnover-worthy plays in the first meeting, this is something Howard has struggled with throughout the year when getting pressured. If Ohio State is going to win this game, they need to do as much as they can to keep this pocket clean, but I wouldn’t put my money on it. On the year, Howard faced the second most pressure in this first matchup, and that was with a better offensive line.
On the ground, Ohio State struggled in the first meeting, only averaging a little over four yards per carry. Quinshon Judkins was the main contributor to this. On the year, he averages around five yards per carry, but against Oregon, this number fell to around two yards per carry. Their other main back, TreVeyon Henderson, appeared to have a solid game at first glance, going 10 for 87. The bad underlying statistic for this is that he had a 53-yard rush that contributed to the bulk of that. This adds up when looking back at the numbers from the first game, Oregon definitely won the battle in the trenches. I don’t expect much to change here for Ohio State on offense this time around, either.
On the defensive side of the ball, Ohio State struggled with something they normally don’t, giving up explosives. On the year, Ohio State is in the 94th percentile at preventing explosives, and Oregon is only in the 29th percentile at creating them, per Game on Paper. In the first matchup, they both had six explosive plays. If Ohio State wants to win here, they are going to have to limit these as well, in addition to getting the run game going and keeping a clean pocket.
Oregon
Led by Dillon Gabriel, the Oregon Ducks are 13-0 with their eyes set on the National Championship. Regardless of how you feel about the seeding and College Football Playoff matchups, we get what we get. As mentioned, Gabriel performed great in the first game but was a little too reliant on explosive plays. When you remove explosive plays, Oregon had a significantly worse EPA/Play compared to Ohio State, -6.51 to -0.19 per Game on Paper. As I said, this is something that Ohio State has done extremely well this year preventing, and Oregon has not done well at generating. I think we will see a little more regression here from Oregon as we move into this matchup. Two other quick items to note: Oregon had success running the ball in the first matchup, Jordan James went 23 for 115 and a touchdown. Also, right guard Marcus Harper II has still not returned, and their backup has not played well in his absence.
Much like Ohio State on defense, Oregon’s main defects are Line Yards and Stuff Rate, meaning the defensive line gets bullied by the opposing offense. While that has been the case during the year, they performed very well against Ohio State in the first matchup. I would expect to see more of this in this matchup with Ohio State’s offensive line concerns. Their only other defect on the year has been defending the run. This, again, was something they did well against Ohio State but not against other teams. Looking at their secondary, Oregon will need more out of their players this game to secure another win. In the first matchup, their defensive backs generated zero havoc, which looks at tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions, or broken-up passes.
Prediction
With two of the best teams in the nation facing off, it makes it difficult to find a winner. The main statistic I keep coming back to is how poor Oregon played without their explosive plays. Even though Ohio State hasn’t faced many explosive teams, if they can get one or two more stops here, that should change the outcome of this game. Ohio State should also see a better performance rushing the ball from their last meeting. As well, I have to imagine that there will be a huge focus on end-game scenarios with how the last one ended. With the spread at two and a half points, I will be betting on Ohio State and hope they can win by at least a field goal to get their revenge.
