Real Madrid’s Tough Battle to Enter the Top Eight of the Champions League

Real Madrid, the reigning Champions League champion, secured a decisive 5-1 victory against Red Bull Salzburg last week, raising their points total to 12 and improving their goal difference to +5. However, even with this important victory, their chances of directly qualifying for the Round of 16 are minimal. To achieve the miracle, Madrid needs to win against Brest on the final matchday on January 29th and rely on other teams' slip-ups. Rivals such as Leverkusen, Aston Villa, and Milan must lose or draw their matches, while the whites must aim for a good and convincing victory to improve their goal average which is not so high even with the latest win.

The goal conceded in the final minutes against Salzburg was a hard blow to Madrid's aspirations for the knockout stage. That simple goal reduced their chances of direct qualification from eight percent to three. According to Opta’s Data, the challenge was even more difficult than it had been before. At this precise moment, the white team is tied with Dortmund, Bayern, and Juventus, all with 12 points, but behind them in the table due to goal difference. Bayern has a +7, Dortmund has a +8, while Madrid has a +5, which forces them to win by a wide margin against Brest to have at least a little chance of going to the knockout stage.

For Real Madrid to reach the top eight, they need nothing short of a miracle. In addition to securing a good victory, as I mentioned before, many favorable results must also fall into place. For instance, Atlético must lose to Salzburg, Milan must fall to Dinamo Zagreb, and teams like Aston Villa, Leverkusen, and Lille must fail to get points. Each of these setbacks is crucial for Madrid to surpass those teams and break into the elite group of the top eight.

If they fail to secure a spot among the top eight, Real Madrid will have to compete in the play-in phase, adding two more matches to their already full schedule. This format would pit them against tough teams like Juventus or Celtic, and only if they advance would they face giants such as Liverpool or Barcelona in the Round of 16. Although the outlook is challenging, Madrid must give their all on the field and finish as high as possible to avoid complications and continue defending their title as European champions.