Who Has the Hardest and Easiest Path to the National Championship Game: Ranked from Easiest to Hardest
The College Football Playoff kicks off tomorrow as seventh-ranked Notre Dame faces their in-state rival, 10th-ranked Indiana. The Fighting Irish have an easier path than Indiana to win it all. However, do they have the easiest? Plus, who has to run through a gauntlet to get to the big game? Let's dive right in and rank each team based on their path to the championship game from easiest to hardest.
1. Fifth-Ranked Texas
This Longhorns team has been strong all year long. The only slip-ups they have had are against Georgia, who wouldn't have to face until the championship game, assuming both teams get there. They will get a good fight from Clemson. I think Texas is the better team with Quinn Ewers and receivers Matthew Golden and Isaiah Bond. Clemson has had a great season after a blowout loss to Georgia in the opener, but it will end here as Texas’ defense shuts them down. Texas then would face Arizona State, led by running back Cam Skattebo. The stud back has run for over 1,500 yards and 19 TDs this season. I think he’ll flex his muscles, but I don't think the Sun Devils have enough to keep up with the high-octane Longhorn’s offense. The only tough game I see Texas playing is when they get to the Semifinal against either Tennessee, Ohio State, or Oregon. Besides that, I think Texas should roll over their first two opponents.
2. Sixth-Ranked Penn State
I really love the Nittany Lions draw here. They have a game against an SMU team that barely squeaked in and then a game against Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty. Now, you may be wondering why I love them playing Boise State in the second round, and that's because of the Penn State defense. They have the ninth-best rushing defense in the league, giving up just over 103 yards per game on the ground. Penn State can easily win these first two games with their offense not playing their best football. I was debating putting them at one for the easiest path, but I just think Texas is the better team, and I like their path a little better.
3. Second-Ranked Georgia
Next on the list are the Georgia Bulldogs. The injury to quarterback Carson Beck is a big concern here. He is the focal point of the offense, and it seems like he is unlikely to play. That is a big loss for the Bulldogs. However, they are starting out with a first-round bye, which already gives them a nice rest while they await their opponent. Their matchup will either be Indiana or Notre Dame. I like Georgia in either matchup, even without their quarterback. If Indiana beats Notre Dame, I think Georgia has an easier time advancing. No offense to Indiana, but Georgia is legit. If Notre Dame wins, which I think they will, it will definitely be a good test for the Bulldogs. However, they have shown they can win in big games. They have beaten Texas on the road twice and beaten a great Tennessee team at home. I think Georgia knows how to win big games, and Kirby Smart will have his team ready. Even with a likely backup quarterback starting the game, I think the Dawgs will rally around him and make a run.
4. Seventh-Ranked Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish have a very winnable game against Indiana to start. Duke quarterback transfer Riley Leonard will be able to use his legs and arm to propel the Irish to a win. The test comes in the next round against Georgia, but similar to Georgia, Notre Dame can win big games. I think this might be the potential game of the playoff right here. I could easily see either team winning. Notre Dame, after that game, would be facing SMU, Penn State, or Boise State. I think Notre Dame has the defense to shut down all of those teams.
5. Third-Ranked Boise State
The Boise State Broncos are in the upper half of this list because of one name, Ashton Jeanty. The Heisman finalist at running back can take over a game. I think he could easily put the team on his back and steal a win versus Penn State or SMU and take down one of the perennial powerhouses in Georgia or Notre Dame, assuming Notre Dame beats Indiana. Outside of Jeanty, I don't know how Boise can hold their own. The test will certainly come against Penn State, as their rush defense is fantastic. They are ninth in the country in rushing yards allowed, as they only give up 103.6 per game. I think Boise State can still get hot, though, with Ashton Jeanty, so always keep your eyes peeled.
6. Ninth-Ranked Tennessee
Some people might think this is a little high for a team that has to play Ohio State and then Oregon. However, after what Ohio State showed versus Michigan, I think Tennessee is more than happy to see the Buckeyes here. Tennessee is led by quarterback Nico Iamaleava and running back Dylan Sampson. These are two players that I don't think Ohio State will have an answer for. The Buckeyes just lost to Michigan 13-10 at home. The loss was easily the worst of the Buckeyes season, and I don't think they can recover from it. Oregon would face Tennessee in the next round, and while Oregon is undefeated, I think Tennessee matches up well here. Tennessee is fourth in the country in rushing defense, so they will match up well with Oregon running back Jordan James. As for the passing game, the Volunteers rank 17th against the pass, allowing 178.7 yards per game. I think they have a decent shot at winning that game should they beat OSU.
7. Eighth-Ranked Ohio State
The Buckeyes desperately need to put their last game versus Michigan behind them. What better way to do it than by beating Tennessee in the College Football Playoff. I do think Ohio State has a tougher path than Tennessee just simply because we have seen how bad Ohio State can be. I don't expect another performance like we saw against Michigan, but there is still cause for concern after losing in the fashion that they did. The offense for Ohio State is littered with talent, including wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who has caught 10 touchdowns this year and has nearly 1,000 yards receiving. The quarterback, Will Howard, will be the key in this game. Ohio State can't afford to have him come out and put up the same numbers he did last week. He threw two interceptions and only threw for 175 yards, and completed 19 out of 33 passes. I think if we see the Ohio State that we saw against Michigan, then it'll be a long day for the Buckeyes. OSU would face Oregon in the next round should they beat Tennessee, and that is a tough matchup if their quarterback isn't right. Oregon is gonna score points, and if Ohio State can't match them, look out.
8. 11th-Ranked SMU
The Mustangs are definitely in for a battle against Penn State. However, they have the offense to keep up with the Nittany Lions. SMU averages 38.5 points per game. They are led by their quarterback, Kevin Jennings, who has thrown for 3,053 yards this year with 22 TDs and eight interceptions. The Penn State defense, though, I think, is up for the challenge. They only allow 16.4 points per game. I think Penn State is a tough matchup for SMU here. The swarming defense of the Nittany Lions will harass Jennings and force him into bad throws. Penn State also allows only 178.5 passing yards per game, which puts them at 16th in all of football in that category. SMU will be in for a battle, but if they do prevail, they will have to face a relentless Ashton Jeanty and Boise State team. I don't think SMU will be able to handle the physical running of Boise State after playing such a rugged game with Penn State.
9. First-Ranked Oregon
Oregon is the only undefeated team in college football. They did it in their first season in the Big Ten. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel led the fast-paced attack as he threw for 3,558 yards and 26 TDs with only six interceptions. A decent amount of those touchdowns went to receiver Tez Johnson, who caught 10 and had 866 yards receiving. Let's not forget the workhorse in the backfield for the Ducks, Jordan James. The running back ran for 1,253 yards and 15 touchdowns this season. Oregon was a well-oiled machine all year and is very deserving of its spot. However, I think they got a pretty rough draw, considering they are the one seed. They do have a bye, but they have to either play Tennessee or Ohio State, both elite teams that can beat anyone at any time and then if they somehow survive that, they would have to play Texas, assuming Texas wins their two matchups. Just a brutal draw for a team that did so much in the regular season. It is definitely gonna be interesting to see how it plays out for them.
10. Fourth-Ranked Arizona State
This team battled in the Big 12 all year, and now they await the winner of Texas and Clemson. Texas is a team that no one wants to face in the playoffs. I think they are a team to be reckoned with, and Arizona State is praying they don't get them. However, Clemson, on the other hand, isn't a cakewalk either. The Tigers are roaring with quarterback Cade Klubnik at the helm and are playing with house money as they got in as a three-loss team. Arizona State is in a world of trouble, no matter who wins that game. Not to mention, if Arizona State did win that game versus Texas or Clemson, they would have to play either Tennessee, Ohio State, or Oregon.
11. 12th-Ranked Clemson
The reason I have Clemson at 11 and behind Arizona State is simply because of Texas. Clemson got a really tough first-round matchup. I think their Cinderella story could continue, but after a hard-fought Texas game, I could see Arizona State running all over them with Cam Skattebo. The Tigers are definitely a dark horse team here to make a run. I am really excited to see how they perform in the College Football Playoff.
12. 10th-Ranked Indiana
Finally, with the hardest path to the championship game, we have the Indiana Hoosiers. Facing off against a one-loss Notre Dame team in the first round is a death sentence to anyone. Curt Cignetti and his team will have to play their best game, and even that may not be enough. Even if Indiana somehow wins that game, they will have to play a tough Georgia team in the next round. The Bulldogs will likely be without their quarterback, Carson Beck, but their backup, Gunner Stockton, showed he had some skill when he filled in for Beck in their last game. Obviously, Georgia isn't the same team without Beck, but I do think it still is a really tough test for Indiana if they get there. After that Georgia game, they would either play Penn State, Boise State, or SMU. Indiana certainly has their work cut out for them. A run for them to the National Championship game would be one for the ages. Will Indiana be able to pull it off?
