Why Steve Erceg Will Upset Champion Alexandre Pantoja
On Saturday, May 4th champion Alexandre Pantoja will attempt to defend his Flyweight belt against #10 Steve Erceg at UFC 301. Now while many will be wondering how a #10 fighter with only three fights in the UFC will somehow get a shot at the belt, Steve Erceg is more than the best option. While many UFC fans would have wanted a more exciting name like Manel Kape to throw at Pantoja, he has his problems. He has already had a fight against Pantoja where he lost by unanimous decision and he missed weight by three and a half pounds earlier this year in his potential rematch with Matheus Nicolau and the fight had to be called off subsequently. Giving him another rematch fight, not to mention a shot at the belt, would go against the integrity of the sport. The other option fans may have expected, Muhammad Mokaev, has won all of his fights in the UFC, but they have been against rather unimpressive opponents, certainly none at the level of Pantoja. Mokaev’s last fight against Alex Perez, although a win, was not very impressive. He barely eked out Perez, and on that same night, we witnessed Erceg land a powerful one-shot knockout on ranked opponent Matt Schnell, securing his bid to this fight. All the other possible contenders in the division have either had their shot or been beaten by Pantoja already, or are injured and unfortunately can’t fight.
While this may have made Steve Erceg the best opponent for Pantoja, what could possibly make me think that the #10 fighter can knock out the champ? Pantoja is the most versatile fighter in the flyweight division with a solid combination of boxing, grappling, and ground game. To beat Pantoja, Erceg will have to counter all facets of his game and dictate the match to his style, but he has the ability to do so. Although Pantoja is a good boxer, he hasn’t had a knockout since 2019, against the aforementioned Matt Schnell, so if he can use his longer reach to avoid a submission, and his best in the division 78% takedown defense, he has a very good chance to take him to a decision. Once there, even though Erceg is inexperienced, Erceg ranks higher in both his per-minute strike rate, at 4.57, and significant strikes defended rate, at 55%, compared to Pantoja’s 4.32 and 49% respectively. These figures show that Erceg knows how to exchange punches but also protect himself in the face of aggressive opponents.
This is not to say neither fighter can’t get a knockout, we have seen them both impressively knockout Schnell in the past, but a submission or decision victory will be much more likely in my opinion. However, Although Erceg’s ground game is much better than people give him credit for, Pantoja would have the slight edge if Erceg is unable to utilize his reach and best-in-class takedown defense. With that being said, if Erceg could weather early storms and tire the champion out, Pantoja has a history of getting sloppy and we might just see a new champ come Sunday morning.
