AFC West: Division Standings, Record Predictions

As the crisp autumn breeze carries the scent of fallen leaves and spiced cider, there's an unmistakable signal in the air: football season is on the horizon. This year, the Kansas City Chiefs, the reigning titans of the gridiron, are primed to defend their kingdom. With an unparalleled streak of eight consecutive division titles and back-to-back Super Bowl victories, they stand as the monarchs of the AFC West. Yet, the winds of change are stirring. The battlefield is set with new challengers eager to seize the throne. Enter Antonio Pierce, Jim Harbaugh, and Sean Payton, each bringing their unique brilliance to the fray with worth to be proven. Pierce, with his raw intensity but promising outlook, Harbaugh, with his seasoned tactical mind, and Payton, clinging to what’s left of his legacy, are all set to shake up the hierarchy. 

Kansas City Chiefs

Record: 13-4

Division Placement: First

It's a near fait accompli that the Kansas City Chiefs will run away with its ninth straight AFC West title, adding another accolade to an exceedingly decorated trophy case. However, Chiefs Kingdom has bigger fish to fry, in this case, uncharted waters: back-to-back-to-back Super Bowl Championships. They face daunting odds, as even prior dynasties have fallen short of such a milestone, but a team led by the magician Patrick Mahomes is capable of redefining just about any norm. However, Kansas City will be operating without two key players from last year's championship team, L'Jarius Sneed and Donovan Smith, and have key questions to address during training camp. While Smith was inconsistent and often penalized, he was a reliable starter. His vacancy at left tackle is expected to be filled by either Wanya Morris or Kingsley Suamataia, both of whom lack compelling experience. Although David Bakhtiari is a free-agent tackle to monitor, the defending champions will likely host a battle for starter between the two aforementioned tackles. 

General Manager Brett Veach didn’t fully address the gaping hole left by Sneed in the cornerback room, but he drafted Trent McDuffie a couple of years ago to help cushion the blow. The team opted for in-house promotions to unconvincingly fill the void, but I have confidence that defensive aficionado Steve Spagnuolo can maintain the team's high defensive status quo set last season. Stud interior defensive tackle Chris Jones returns to Spagnuolo’s defense on a four-year extension while George Karlaftis has an offseason before negotiation talks ramp up, adding security to the defensive line. With conclusive terms on three extensions for general manager Brett Veach, head coach Andy Reid, and team president Mark Donovan, this organization’s path toward dominance will not be provoked. They’re the AFC West favorite until comprised so expect continued supremacy over the division this season. 

Los Angeles Chargers

Record: 9-8

Division Placement: Second 

The early Justin Herbert era, marked by a series of misfortunes, now appears to be on the mend with the arrival of reigning College Football Champion Jim Harbaugh and his cadre of Michigan staff. The Los Angeles Chargers were gifted a fourth-place schedule with the fifth-easiest slate based on last season's opponents' win percentage. With the departure of the oft-injured Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, the Chargers have turned to unproven talents to fill the void. The franchise is banking on a second-year breakout from Quentin Johnston, while rookies Brenden Rice, Ladd McConkey, and Joe Alt acclimate to the speed of the NFL. Another key addition is newly hired offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who’s earned his claim to fame by orchestrating some of the best rushing attacks in football—a perfect match with Harbaugh’s offensive philosophy. J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards will have their numbers called more often than not, with Austin Ekeler bidding adieu to Los Angeles in free agency. 

The X-factor remains the Chargers’ defense, a unit brimming with talent but often underperforming. Newly appointed defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who has roots with both Harbaugh brothers—four seasons under John Harbaugh and two under Jim Harbaugh—brings a wealth of defensive expertise. Added to his defense was long-time Steeler Bud Dupree who, despite being a shell of himself, completes a talented edge-rushing trifecta alongside Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. Chargers faithful are optimistic that under new leadership, Los Angeles will finally unlock the team's utmost potential. I predict the Los Angeles Chargers will narrowly surpass the Las Vegas Raiders, securing second place in the division standings by a game.

Las Vegas Raiders

Record: 8-9

Division Placement: Third 

The 2024 Las Vegas Raiders, now under the guidance of internally promoted interim head coach Antonio Pierce, present a fascinating wild-card scenario. This isn't merely about competing for a wild-card playoff spot—although they have the infrastructure to remain competitive through late December—but rather about the delicate balance between finishing with a 7-10 or 10-7 record. The internal quarterback competition between fourth-round gem Aidan O’Connell and seasoned veteran Gardner Minshew will be the defining factor of this team's ceiling. The offensive skill talent alone can shoulder the load, even if the quarterback production is inconsistent. On the defensive side, prominent figures like Maxx Crosby and free agent addition Christian Wilkins create a polarizing presence. However, I have reservations about the quarterback candidates, with the firm belief that neither can adequately hunker down the role for a full 17-game season. Pierce, despite refining organizational culture and receiving glowing endorsements from key players, remains an unproven commodity. The hiring of former Chicago Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy further tempers my expectations for this group as he showed the inability to scheme around his players. Under these circumstances, a repeat of last season's 8-9 record seems most plausible, though they could certainly surprise many pundits and exceed my candid expectations.

Denver Broncos 

Record: 6-11 

Division Placement: Fourth

Peyton Manning’s retirement after Super Bowl 50 ignited a nearly decade-long saga of relentless torment for the Denver Broncos. A revolving door of quarterbacks, receivers, and coaching staff all led to the same disappointing outcome: an extended offseason. The brief Nathaniel Hackett era, initially brimming with optimism and Russell Wilson’s arrival, ended disastrously, dashing hopes of a Super Bowl run. Hackett’s downfall, however, paved the way for future Hall of Fame head coach Sean Payton to step in, only to face similar struggles, albeit with a glimmer of improvement. Now, we find ourselves full circle with coach Payton at the helm, a retooled quarterback lineup, and significant roster changes, all aimed at breaking the cycle of misfortune. A disappointment in Jerry Jeudy was expended for a 2024 fifth-round pick and a 2024 six-round pick and was subsequently replaced with Troy Franklin in late April’s Draft. Wilson’s immovable contract was cast aside to forge a path for Oregon product Bo Nix. Joining him is three-year flameout Zach Wilson, while journeyman Jarrett Stidham remains on the roster, to complete a reshuffled quarterback room. Despite being one of the NFL's most storied franchises, the Broncos are still striving to recapture the glory that once made them perennial contenders. Give me the Broncos bottom out the AFC West while other subplots — such as coach Payton getting blacklisted from the NFL — get expunged by the season’s end. A long winding road awaits before Denver can right its sunken ship.