Andruw’s Favorite Betting Props for Week Three of the NFL Season
Last week, I went two for three on my favorite picks of the week. Not perfect but hitting 66% of your bets means guaranteed profits. This week, I believe some lines will cash very early in each game. Games like Lions vs. Cardinals, Texans vs. Vikings, and Dolphins vs. Seahawks have a ton of value considering I expect these games to be fast-paced. Let's get into it.
For the first prop, we will be running it back with a player I mentioned last week, Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs’ reception line is at three-and-a-half. In this game, I love his over-prop because of how utilized he has been in the passing game. In his last 11 games, Gibbs has had over four receptions in eight of them. In two games this season, Gibbs has had over six targets and four receptions in each game. Not only does his involvement in the passing game help this line, but so does the Cardinals’ defense. The Cardinals have been surprisingly good at defending the run this season ranking ninth in the NFL as of today. This means the Lions will use less of David Montgomery because more likely than not he won’t be efficient on the ground. One last thing I will mention is that since 2023, Jared Goff has led the NFL in check-down passes. All signs point to Gibbs hitting the over in this game.
The next prop I like is Jaxon Smith-Njigba over four-and-a-half receptions. Njigba is coming off a week where he had 16 targets and 12 receptions. Ryan Grubbs’ offensive scheme will be pass-heavy this week because of Kenneth Walker’s injury. It is safe to assume that the slot receiver will see heavy usage and since the Dolphins don’t have an elite slot corner, I expect Njigba to smash his line. Not only will the Seahawks be pass-heavy, but they will also dominate time of possession because the Dolphins will be starting a backup quarterback. The Seahawks defense will have no problem containing the Dolphins offense this week. Smash Njigbas over four-and-a-half receptions.
The final prop is Tank Dell under 50.5 receiving yards. In this high-powered Texans’ offense, it seems like Dell is the odd man out. Out of the three receivers, he has the lowest target share and doesn’t see the field in two wide receiver sets. Although the oddsmakers have this game being close, I believe the Texans will win this game by double digits. A double-digit win means more chew clock and run plays to get the game over with. The only way I can see Dell having over 50.5 receiving yards is if he has a 30+ yard reception. I have faith in Brian Flores’ ability to contain big plays, so Dell under 50.5 should cash.
