Down to the Wire: Analyzing the Yankees-Orioles Battle for the AL East Crown
The American League East division is primed for an exciting finish to decide who will win the division as the 2024 MLB regular season approaches its last month next week. Entering play on Tuesday, August 27th, the New York Yankees are ahead of the Baltimore Orioles by two games in the division. This season, the two clubs have seen their fair share of highs and lows. They both enjoyed excellent starts before experiencing major mid-season slumps over the last two months. Into the last month of the regular season, neither side had been able to create any significant gap between them due to their severe mid-season struggles. Let's examine the factors that might tip the scales and decide the outcome of September's highly anticipated AL East divisional race.
Pitching Health
As the regular season approaches its last month, starting and relief pitchers’ health and performance will become crucial. With many arms suffering either season-ending or long-term injuries, the Orioles' pitching depth is currently being put to the test as a team. The Orioles' current starting rotation consists of ace Corbin Burnes, Albert Suarez, Dean Kremer, Cade Povich, and Cole Irvin. Solely in August, the Orioles have had to put two of their most important starting pitchers on the IL, with veteran starter Zach Eflin, acquired during the trade deadline, being placed on August 20th due to shoulder soreness, and rising starter Grayson Rodriguez was placed on the IL on August 7th due to a "mild" lat strain, per manager Brandon Hyde. After Tommy John surgery sidelined Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells, and John Means for the duration of the season, Rodriguez and Eflin became the fourth and fifth Orioles starters to go on the injured list this season.
Conversely, the Yankees have mostly been successful in maintaining pitching health despite losing star Gerrit Cole to elbow inflammation for the first 75 games of the season. However, last Wednesday, the Yankees received some unfavorable news, with starter Luis Gil, who had stepped up to fill in for Cole during his early season absence, was put on the 15-Day Injured List due to a lower back strain that he developed during his most recent start against the Cleveland Guardians. As the season comes to an end, Rodriguez, Eflin, and Gil are all anticipated to return to their respective clubs, giving both teams significant reinforcements going into September. The Yankees seem to have the advantage in the pitching department going into September, as they have the fifth-best ERA in MLB and have fewer long-term injuries than the Orioles.
Offensive Firepower
With a single swing of the bat, the lineups of the Yankees and Orioles can both alter the course of any game. Over the past three seasons since the Orioles returned to competitive baseball, the starting lineup, which includes Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, Jordan Westburg, and Colton Cowser, has been a revelation. The Orioles lineup has seen ups and downs this season as the offense has gone through intense spurts of hitting home runs and producing in crucial moments. However, the Orioles' offensive production has faltered over the last two months as a result of inconsistent swing approaches, which some argue are home run or bust, and a lack of success capitalizing with runners in scoring position. The Orioles offense, which is already working to resume its typical productive ways, has suffered serious blows with the loss of Mountcastle due to a sprained wrist and Westburg due to a right-hand fracture earlier this month.
The Yankees, meantime, have come under fire for having a lineup that is mostly dependent on superstars Aaron Judge and Juan Soto to carry the team's offensive load. Even with the over-reliance on Judge and Soto, the Yankees have benefited immensely from having the pair in their lineup. With one full month of baseball remaining to add to these MVP stats, Judge is attempting to surpass his career-best 62 home runs from 2022, with the six-time All-Star having hit an MLB-best 51 home runs, driven in 122 RBIs, and has a .333 batting average. In addition, Soto has fit right in with the Yankees since joining them this season. He has hit over 30 home runs for the second straight season and formed a strong tandem with Judge.
Head-to-Head Matchup
Through the first 10 games of the season series, this battle of titans has been fiercely contested. With six wins in 10 games played thus far in the season series, the Orioles hold a slight advantage. The Orioles and Yankees will play one more regular season series, a crucial three-game set in the Bronx in late September that will decide the season series winner. The Orioles will have secured the season series and would own the tiebreaker over the Yankees in the event that the two clubs finish tied atop the division if they can win only one game in the final series scheduled for next month. Meanwhile, the Yankees must pull off a series sweep when the two clubs clash again if they hope to unseat the Orioles and win the season series.
Who Will Prevail?
The division battle is probably going to come down to the wire because of how fiercely the two teams are competing and how well-matched their performances are. The Yankees' pair of Judge and Soto, combined with Cole and Gil on the mound, make them a strong competitor that shouldn't be taken lightly, but the Orioles' success against divisional opponents over recent seasons may give them a tiny advantage. In the end, the AL East battle might come down to the last series between these two teams this season. Given the recent injuries to both teams and their patchy play, it's too close to call, but the Orioles' tenacity and slightly better head-to-head record might give them a modest advantage. Nonetheless, given the closeness of the race, each team has a legitimate chance to win the division in September with a strong finish to the season, perhaps making the last head-to-head matchup meaningless.
