Sliding Into Trouble: Can the Heat Avoid Missing the Playoffs?
Good times in South Beach have taken a wrong turn as the NBA regular season enters its final stretch. The Miami Heat, who started the season with championship aspirations, led by stars Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo, have seen their plans falter with just 26 games remaining. Currently sitting in ninth place in the Eastern Conference with a 26-30 record, the Heat recorded their latest loss on Monday night against the Atlanta Hawks, marking their sixth defeat in the last seven games. Since trading Butler to the Golden State Warriors earlier this month, after he helped lead Miami to two NBA Finals appearances, the Heat have struggled, going 2-6 in his absence. Now, with only a five-and-a-half game lead over the Brooklyn Nets, the first team out of the Play-In Tournament, head coach Erik Spoelstra faces the challenge of preventing his team from missing the playoffs altogether.
The greatest determining factor in whether the Heat can maintain their playoff positioning is their ability to become a more efficient offensive squad as they head into the season's final months. Before action on Wednesday, the Heat ranked 25th in the NBA in points per game, averaging 109.7, and ranked 22nd in field goal percentage at 45.3%. Throughout the Jimmy Butler saga, which saw Butler suspended by the team multiple times, the Heat's offense this season has primarily run through their two biggest stars: Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo. For Herro, who is in his sixth NBA season, he has been the Heat’s primary scoring threat of the two, averaging 24 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and a 46.1 field goal percentage.
Meanwhile, Adebayo, the longest-tenured player on the Heat, has remained a strong defensive presence, going up against the league’s best big men. However, his offensive numbers have dropped compared to the past three seasons, averaging 16.9 points, 10 rebounds, and 4.3 assists. Alongside the duo of Herro and Adebayo is 11-year forward Andrew Wiggins, who was acquired from the Warriors in the Butler trade. After struggling to find his rhythm in his first two games with Miami, where he scored fewer than 15 points, the 30-year-old has started to find his groove, scoring 20 or more points in his last three games. For the Heat to overcome their current rough patch, they will need this trio to help lead them to a playoff spot as they continue to adjust to rotation changes following the recent injury to third-year forward Nikola Jovic. Jovic, who has been having a career-best season, was revealed to have suffered a broken hand in their Sunday night loss against the Milwaukee Bucks, forcing coach Spoelstra to continue searching for the right answers to solve their problems.
The path for the Heat to avoid dropping out of the playoff picture altogether will not be an easy one, based on their remaining games in March and April. In their final 26 games to conclude the regular season, 18 of those will come against teams from both the Eastern and Western Conferences that are either currently guaranteed a playoff spot or sitting in the Play-In Tournament. While the Heat have faced their share of adversity this season and drama as well, Miami has shown in past seasons its ability to overcome those obstacles when the odds are stacked against them. If the Heat can turn their offensive production around and pair that with their top-10 defensive unit, ranked seventh in points allowed at 110.7 and the 12th-best field goal percentage allowed, Miami should be able to secure a spot in the Play-In Tournament and see what the cards hold for them beyond that as they enter the postseason.
